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Weekly recaps

Every FBS team, every Monday. Per-team recap of the weekend's results — what GIE saw, what happened, what changed.

Week 12

100 recaps

ACC 12

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Boston College: 2026 Week 12 recap Boston College sits at 4–5 after a 31–24 home loss to Florida State that dropped the Eagles' rating to −⁠5.4 and knocked them down to 95th nationally. The defeat accelerated a week-over-week decline, with GIE marking a 3.9-point swing… 4–5 #95 Down 17 −5.4
California: 2026 Week 12 recap California sits at 3–6 after a 31–10 road loss to NC State in Week 9, and the damage has compounded: GIE's rating dropped 3.2 points to −⁠11.4, placing them 113th nationally. The Bears are converting just 37.7% on third down and struggling… 3–6 #113 Down 12 3.2
Clemson: 2026 Week 12 recap Clemson sits at 6–3 and ranked 58th after a narrow 18–13 road win over Syracuse, but GIE's model has grown noticeably skeptical. A 1.4-point rating drop signals real underlying concerns—the Tigers now project to 7.8 expected wins and face… 6–3 #58 Down 3 3.3
Duke: 2026 Week 12 recap Duke sits at 32nd in GIE's ratings after a monster Week 10 road win over NC State (41–3), a result that bumped their rating up 6.2 points to 13. The 7–2 record suggests a team firing on most cylinders, though the situational numbers… 7–2 #32 Up 15 6.2
Florida State: 2026 Week 12 recap Florida State sits at 4–5 after a road win at Boston College that did little to move the needle: GIE dipped the Seminoles from 5.8 to 5.5, leaving them ranked 49th. The victory itself was real—31 points away from home—but the model's… 4–5 #49 Up 4 5.5
Georgia Tech: 2026 Week 12 recap Georgia Tech has fallen to 99th nationally with a rating of −⁠8.1 after a catastrophic 44–17 loss to Louisville in Week 10, dropping 7.0 rating points in a single result. At 2–7, the Yellow Jackets are now projected for just 2.3 wins on… 2–7 #99 Down 24 −8.1
Louisville: 2026 Week 12 recap Louisville sits at No. 14 after a dominant 44–17 road win over Georgia Tech in Week 10 lifted the Cardinals' rating from 12.2 to 17.7—a jump of 5.5 points that reflects genuine momentum. At 6–3, the team has exceeded early-season… 6–3 #14 Up 11 12.2
Miami: 2026 Week 12 recap Miami sits at No. 3 with an 8–1 record, though a narrow loss to Notre Dame last week has them treading water. GIE shows a slight dip in their rating—down 0.7 points—which reflects the vulnerability exposed in that 31–24 defeat. The real… 8–1 #3 Up 2 0.7
NC State: 2026 Week 12 recap NC State is ranked 81st by GIE after dropping 1.4 points in its rating following a 41–3 home loss to Duke in Week 10—a result that underscored deeper offensive struggles. At 4–5, the Wolfpack sits well outside playoff contention, with a… 4–5 #81 Down 7 −2.3
North Carolina: 2026 Week 12 recap North Carolina has climbed to 50th in the latest GIE ratings—a 1.6-point jump from last week—following a dominant 38-21 road win over UConn that kept the Tar Heels' bowl hopes alive at 5-4. The breakthrough came at an opportune moment:… 5–4 #50 Up 8 5.3
Pittsburgh: 2026 Week 12 recap Pittsburgh sits at No. 35 overall after a significant leap in GIE's rating—up 2.3 points to 10.2 following a dominant 34–11 home win over Georgia Tech in Week 9. The 6–3 record puts the Panthers in solid midseason form, though their… 6–3 #35 Up 9 2.3
SMU: 2026 Week 12 recap SMU sits at 18th overall with a 7–2 record and a rating of 15.8, up 2.4 points from last week following a dominant 51–28 home win over Virginia Tech in Week 10. The Mustangs have momentum, but the underlying picture reveals constraint: a… 7–2 #18 Up 3 15.8

American Athletic 8

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Army: 2026 Week 12 recap Army's late-season collapse continues. After a three-point home loss to Air Force in Week 10, the Black Knights have plummeted from a rating of 1 to −⁠2.1, a stunning −⁠3.1-point swing that dropped them to rank 79 nationally. At 5-4,… 5–4 #79 Down 13 −2.1
Charlotte: 2026 Week 12 recap Charlotte sits at 1–8 with a rating of −⁠27.4, having dropped 2.0 points after a 23–12 loss at UAB in Week 10. The 49ers haven't climbed out of the basement since, and GIE's assessment reflects a team genuinely struggling on both sides of… 1–8 #138 Down 2 −27.4
East Carolina: 2026 Week 12 recap East Carolina sits at 5–4 after a 20–17 home win over South Florida in Week 10, a result that lifted the Pirates' rating 1.2 points to −⁠2.8 and into the 86th rank. The victory showed resilience in close quarters, though GIE's projections… 5–4 #86 Up 5 1.2
Florida Atlantic: 2026 Week 12 recap Florida Atlantic sits at 6–3 and has climbed to rank 77 after a decisive 60–29 win over UTSA last week, a performance that lifted the team's rating by 2.1 points. The Owls remain in the playoff hunt mathematically, though GIE gives them a… 6–3 #77 Up 13 2.1
Memphis: 2026 Week 12 recap Memphis sits at 7–2 with a 9.6 rating and ranks 37th after a dominant 49–22 home win over Army in Week 9. That result capped a significant three-week climb—GIE has lifted the Tigers 2.6 rating points since early November, reflecting… 7–2 #37 Up 9 9.6
Navy: 2026 Week 12 recap Navy sits at 3–6 and rank 87 overall after a seven-point home win over Temple in Week 10, but the rating has slipped 1.5 points since then, landing at −⁠3.1. The offense showed life in that victory—42 points is respectable—yet the… 3–6 #87 Down 7 1.5
North Texas: 2026 Week 12 recap North Texas sits at 7–2 and has vaulted into AAC contention after a dominant 52–23 win over Rice in Week 10. GIE's rating jumped 5.3 points to 4.7, landing the Mean Green at 52nd nationally—a sharp reversal from last week's below-water… 7–2 #52 Up 20 5.3
Rice: 2026 Week 12 recap Rice sits at 1–8 with a rating of −⁠16.1 and no realistic path to the postseason. Last week's 52–23 loss at North Texas marked a steep decline, dropping the Owls 1.9 points in GIE's assessment. The red-zone efficiency tells much of the… 1–8 #126 Down 4 −16.1

Big 12 11

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Arizona: 2026 Week 12 recap Arizona sits at 21st in GIE's rankings with a 7–2 record, though last week's narrow 29–28 home win over TCU cost them ground—dropping 0.6 rating points and trimming their playoff probability to just under 5%. The red-zone efficiency tells… 7–2 #21 Down 7 0.6
Arizona State: 2026 Week 12 recap Arizona State sits at No. 65 after a modest 20–10 win over Colorado in Week 10, but the rating drop of 0.4 points tells the real story: the Sun Devils aren't moving in the right direction. At 5–4, they're projected for roughly 6.1 wins on… 5–4 #65 Down 3 0.4
Baylor: 2026 Week 12 recap Baylor is ranked 31st by GIE after a decisive 42–31 home win over Iowa State last week—a result that lifted the Bears' rating by 4.8 points to 13.3. At 6–3, they've quietly climbed into playoff consideration territory, though the model… 6–3 #31 Up 12 4.8
BYU: 2026 Week 12 recap BYU sits at 17th overall with a 7–2 record, though the rating dipped half a point following last week's 28–20 loss at Utah—a result that underscored some hard truths about the offense's efficiency. The Cougars are converting just 39% of… 7–2 #17 Down 4 16.2
Cincinnati: 2026 Week 12 recap Cincinnati sits at No. 59 after a steep 3.7-point rating drop following a 31–24 road loss to Houston in Week 10. The Bearcats' 5–4 record masks a troubling offensive efficiency problem: their red-zone touchdown rate sits at just 22.6%,… 5–4 #59 Down 10 3.0
Colorado: 2026 Week 12 recap Colorado sits at 3–6 with a rating of −⁠5.2, having dropped 0.9 points after a 20–10 road loss to Arizona State in Week 10. The Buffaloes are struggling to execute in critical moments: a red-zone TD rate of just 14.5% and third-down… 3–6 #94 Down 1 −5.2
Houston: 2026 Week 12 recap Houston sits at No. 25 after a 31-24 home win over Cincinnati in Week 10, a result that lifted the Cougars' rating 0.8 points to 14.1. At 7-2, they're tracking toward 9.1 expected wins and hold a 36% playoff probability—respectable but… 7–2 #25 Down 3 0.8
Iowa State: 2026 Week 12 recap Iowa State sits at 4–5 after a 42–31 road loss to Baylor in Week 10, and GIE's assessment has darkened: the model dropped the Cyclones 1.1 points this week to a rating of −⁠2.3, now ranking them 81st nationally. The offensive struggles are… 4–5 #81 Down 5 −2.3
Kansas: 2026 Week 12 recap Kansas sits at 64th nationally after dropping 0.8 rating points following a one-point home loss to UCF in Week 10. The 32–33 defeat crystallized a season-long offensive struggle: a red-zone TD rate of just 22% and third-down conversion at… 3–6 #64 Down 4 0.8
Kansas State: 2026 Week 12 recap Kansas State has plummeted to a 4.5 rating and No. 53 in the model after absorbing a 66–28 home loss to Oklahoma State in Week 10—a 4.3-point rating swing that reflects the damage of a blowout defeat. At 4–5, the Wildcats are essentially… 4–5 #53 Down 14 4.5
Oklahoma State: 2026 Week 12 recap Oklahoma State's dominant 66–28 road victory over Kansas State in Week 10 vaulted the Cowboys up 3.1 rating points, lifting them to 20th nationally with a 6–3 record. That offensive explosion masks a structural problem: a red-zone TD rate… 6–3 #20 Up 3 3.1

Big Ten 14

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Illinois: 2026 Week 12 recap Illinois sits at No. 43 overall after a 24-13 home win over Nebraska in Week 10 that nudged their rating up 1.2 points to 8.0. The Illini are 6-3 on the season, but GIE's red-zone efficiency metric (14.6% touchdown rate) suggests they're… 6–3 #43 Up 4 1.2
Indiana: 2026 Week 12 recap Indiana sits at No. 5 with an 8–1 record and a rating of 23.5 after edging Minnesota 23–16 in Week 9. The rating ticked down slightly from 24.2, a modest dip that reflects the narrow margin despite a win at home. GIE projects 10.3… 8–1 #5 Up 1 23.5
Iowa: 2026 Week 12 recap Iowa vaulted to No. 16 nationally after dismantling Northwestern 24–10 in Week 10, a four-point rating jump that reflects the Hawkeyes' defensive dominance and opportunistic execution on the road. At 7–2, the model projects them to win… 7–2 #16 Up 7 16.4
Maryland: 2026 Week 12 recap Maryland sits at 3–6 after a 34–29 road win at Purdue in Week 10, but GIE's rating remains flat at −⁠2.1, suggesting the Terps haven't moved the needle much despite the victory. The model still projects 3.8 expected wins for the season,… 3–6 #79 Up 2 −2.1
Michigan: 2026 Week 12 recap Michigan's 5–4 record masks a steeper decline than the standings suggest. GIE's rating dropped 1.5 points to 10 this week, reflecting last weekend's 15–6 home loss to Michigan State—a result that crystallized the Wolverines' offensive… 5–4 #36 Down 9 1.5
Michigan State: 2026 Week 12 recap Michigan State sits at 3–6 after a 15–6 road win over Michigan in Week 10, a result that lifted the Spartans' rating to −⁠2.4 and nudged them up one spot in GIE's rankings to 83rd. The upset over their rival marked a rare bright spot;… 3–6 #83 Up 5 −2.4
Minnesota: 2026 Week 12 recap Minnesota's collapse continued this week: a 34–20 home loss to UCLA dropped them to 5–4 and cratered their rating from 3.9 to 1.3, a swing that reflects just how badly things have unraveled. The Gophers rank 67th in GIE's latest… 5–4 #67 Down 10 3.9
Nebraska: 2026 Week 12 recap Nebraska's rating slipped a point this week to 14.4, dropping them to 23rd as the program sits at 5–4 following a 24–13 loss at Illinois in Week 10. The defeat exposed a core offensive weakness: a red-zone TD rate of only 16% means… 5–4 #23 Down 8 14.4
Northwestern: 2026 Week 12 recap Northwestern's rating dropped 1.3 points to 12.4 (No. 33) following a 24–10 home loss to Iowa in Week 10, a result that confirmed what the model had been signaling: the Wildcats' offense remains unreliable in critical moments. A red-zone… 6–3 #33 Down 13 1.3
Ohio State: 2026 Week 12 recap Ohio State enters Week 12 ranked 3rd but facing real trouble after a 41–28 home loss to Oregon last week. The rating drop of 4.6 points reflects the severity: GIE now projects a 0% playoff probability and 0% chance to win the Big Ten. The… 6–3 #3 Down 2 4.6
Oregon: 2026 Week 12 recap Oregon sits at 15th overall with a 6–3 record after a stunning 41–28 road win over Ohio State in Week 10—a result that barely budged their rating, suggesting GIE views it as closer to expectation than the final margin implies. The Ducks'… 6–3 #15 Down 3 16.9
Penn State: 2026 Week 12 recap Penn State sits at 38th overall with a 5–4 record after stealing a road win at Washington in Week 10. The rating hasn't budged since last week—GIE still has them at 9.3—but the victory itself matters more than the number shift. What's… 5–4 #38 Down 2 9.3
Purdue: 2026 Week 12 recap Purdue sits at 3–6 after a 34–29 home loss to Maryland in Week 10, and the rating drop from this point last week tells the story: GIE moved the Boilermakers down 2.6 points, from 0.2 to −⁠2.4, now ranking them 83rd nationally. The collapse… 3–6 #83 Down 14 −2.4
Rutgers: 2026 Week 12 recap Rutgers dropped 4.3 rating points after a 31-10 loss to Wisconsin in Week 10, sliding to 105th overall with a 2-7 record. The decline reflects persistent execution problems: a red-zone TD rate of just 14% and third-down conversion rate of… 2–7 #105 Down 10 4.3

Conference USA 9

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Delaware: 2026 Week 12 recap Delaware sits at 4–5 with a rating of −⁠9.2 after a narrow two-point road loss to Kennesaw State in Week 10. The Fightin' Blue Hens have climbed 2.5 rating points over the past week, a modest uptick that reflects competitive effort in a… 4–5 #105 Up 12 −9.2
Florida International: 2026 Week 12 recap Florida International sits at 4–5 after edging Missouri State 23–20 at home in Week 10, a win that temporarily steadied the ship but hasn't reversed the downward trend. The Panthers' rating dropped another point to −⁠8.9 this week, pushing… 4–5 #104 Down 4 −8.9
Jacksonville State: 2026 Week 12 recap Jacksonville State sits at 53rd overall after a dramatic week-10 surge: a 47–14 home win over Sam Houston lifted the Gamecocks' rating 7.1 points to 4.5, erasing what had been a deeply underwater projection. At 7–2, they're performing… 7–2 #53 Up 31 7.1
Kennesaw State: 2026 Week 12 recap Kennesaw State sits at 3–6 after a thrilling 42–40 home win over Delaware in Week 10 that nudged the Owls up 3.8 rating points to −⁠10. That victory showcased both their capability and their brittleness: a red-zone TD rate of just 14%… 3–6 #108 Up 12 3.8
Liberty: 2026 Week 12 recap Liberty sits at 22nd overall with an 8–1 record, but the week-over-week story belongs to GIE's rating, which jumped 7.5 points to 15 after the Flames throttled New Mexico State 30–14 on the road. That's a significant recalibration—the… 8–1 #22 Up 23 7.5
Middle Tennessee: 2026 Week 12 recap Middle Tennessee sits at 5–4 after a dominant 51–42 win over Western Kentucky in Week 10, climbing slightly in GIE's ratings from −⁠15.2 to −⁠14.5. The Blue Raiders are ranked 123rd overall and have an expected win total of 6.42, signaling… 5–4 #123 Up 2 −14.5
Missouri State: 2026 Week 12 recap Missouri State sits at 3–6 with a rating of −⁠14, a modest 2.9-point climb from the prior week after a narrow 20–23 road loss to Florida International in Week 10. The Bears' offensive efficiency remains a constraint—a 19% red-zone… 3–6 #121 Up 7 2.9
New Mexico State: 2026 Week 12 recap New Mexico State sits at 126th overall with a 3-6 record and a rating of −⁠16.1, having slipped 2.7 points after a 30-14 loss to Liberty in Week 10. The Aggies' offensive inefficiency tells the story: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 13%… 3–6 #126 Down 7 −16.1
Sam Houston: 2026 Week 12 recap Sam Houston sits at 1–8 and ranked 131st by GIE after a 47–14 loss at Jacksonville State last week dropped their rating to −⁠20.7. The 2.7-point downgrade reflects a season-long struggle in critical moments: third-down conversion sits at… 1–8 #131 Down 2 −20.7

FBS Independents 1

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Notre Dame: 2026 Week 12 recap Notre Dame sits at No. 2 with an 8–1 record and a rating of 24.4, down slightly from 25.2 after last week's 31–24 home win over Miami. The victory was narrow enough to warrant scrutiny: their red-zone TD rate of 17% suggests they're… 8–1 #2 Up 1 24.4

Mid-American 11

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Akron: 2026 Week 12 recap Akron sits at 1–8 with a rating of −⁠24.8, essentially unchanged from last week despite dropping a close home contest to Ohio 20–28 back in Week 10. The Zips remain firmly anchored in the basement of GIE's rankings, with virtually no path… 1–8 #134 Up 1 −24.8
Ball State: 2026 Week 12 recap Ball State remains firmly in the basement of the MAC at 130th overall with a 3–6 record, though GIE nudged the Cardinals up 0.6 rating points to −⁠19.5 this week. That modest lift followed a heartbreaking one-point loss to Massachusetts—a… 3–6 #130 Up 1 −19.5
Bowling Green: 2026 Week 12 recap Bowling Green sits at 2–7 following a 23–10 loss to Western Michigan in Week 9, with GIE rating the Falcons at −⁠19.3 and holding them at 129th nationally. The most recent result underscores deeper offensive struggles: a red-zone touchdown… 2–7 #129 Up 1 −19.3
Buffalo: 2026 Week 12 recap Buffalo sits at 6–3 and ranked 112th by GIE after a 34–31 road win over Miami (OH) in Week 10—a result that nudged the Bulls up 0.9 points in the model's rating, now sitting at −⁠11.1. The victory masks some underlying inefficiency: a… 6–3 #112 Up 6 −11.1
Central Michigan: 2026 Week 12 recap Central Michigan sits at 4–5 after dismantling Eastern Michigan 35–7 in Week 10, a result that lifted their GIE rating 3.5 points to −⁠13.2 and pulled them into 118th nationally. The blowout win masks a deeper problem: a red-zone touchdown… 4–5 #118 Up 9 3.5
Eastern Michigan: 2026 Week 12 recap Eastern Michigan sits at 4–6 and ranked 128th overall, having dropped 2.3 rating points after a 35–7 home loss to Central Michigan in Week 10. The Eagles' offensive struggles are the core issue: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 15% and… 4–6 #128 Down 5 2.3
Kent State: 2026 Week 12 recap Kent State sits at 3–6 with a rating of −⁠22.1, having slipped 0.8 points after a 31–10 road loss to Sacramento State in Week 9. The Golden Flashes remain ranked 132nd nationally and hold no path to the MAC title or playoff contention.… 3–6 #132 No change −22.1
Massachusetts: 2026 Week 12 recap Massachusetts sits at 103rd overall after a narrow 31–30 home win over Ball State in Week 10 that nudged the Minutemen's rating up 2.3 points to −⁠8.8. That one-point victory masks underlying efficiency problems: a red-zone TD rate of just… 5–4 #103 Up 10 2.3
Miami (OH): 2026 Week 12 recap Miami (OH) sits at 5–4 with a rating of −⁠4.9, having dropped 0.7 points following a 34–31 home loss to Buffalo in Week 10. The RedHawks remain ranked 92nd overall and hold zero playoff probability; their expected-wins total of 6.26… 5–4 #92 No change −4.9
Ohio: 2026 Week 12 recap Ohio sits at 74th overall after a 1.1-point jump in its rating this week, improving to −⁠0.4 following a 28–20 road win over Akron in Week 10. The Bobcats are 7–2 and still alive for a conference title—GIE gives them a 39% shot at winning… 7–2 #74 Up 4 −0.4
Sacramento State: 2026 Week 12 recap Sacramento State sits at 2–8 after a three-point home loss to Toledo in Week 10, a result that nudged the Hornets up 4.2 rating points to −⁠24.9 according to GIE. That modest gain reflects a team scrapping for relevance in a brutal MAC… 2–8 #135 Up 3 −24.9

Mountain West 7

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Air Force: 2026 Week 12 recap Air Force sits at 69th nationally following a 1.9-point rating bump that pushed them to 1.1 after their 24-21 road win over Army in Week 10. The Falcons are 7-2 and tracking toward nine expected wins, a solid floor for a Mountain West… 7–2 #69 Up 4 1.1
Hawai'i: 2026 Week 12 recap Hawai'i sits at 3–6 and ranked 109th by GIE after a narrow 17–14 road win over UTEP in Week 10 that only marginally moved the needle. The model dipped the Rainbow Warriors' rating by 0.7 points this week, keeping them firmly in the… 3–6 #109 Down 2 0.7
Nevada: 2026 Week 12 recap Nevada has cratered to a 3-6 record and a rating of −⁠6.4, a sharp three-point drop following a 31-3 home loss to New Mexico last week. The Wolf Pack's offensive struggles are impossible to ignore: a 12% red-zone touchdown rate and 30%… 3–6 #97 Down 8 −6.4
New Mexico: 2026 Week 12 recap New Mexico sits at No. 23 after a massive week that saw its rating jump 5.1 points following a 31–3 demolition of Nevada in Week 10. The Lobos are 8–1 and now project to win the Mountain West conference (84% per GIE), though their path to… 8–1 #23 Up 13 5.1
North Dakota State: 2026 Week 12 recap North Dakota State has climbed to 34th in GIE's ratings after a 2.1-point jump, now sitting at 10.7 following a dominant 31–7 home win over UTEP in Week 9. The Bison are 7–2 on the season with an expected-wins projection of 9.4,… 7–2 #34 Up 7 10.7
Northern Illinois: 2026 Week 12 recap Northern Illinois sits at 0–9 after dropping Week 10 to San José State 30–19, a result that pushed the Huskies' rating down 1.5 points to −⁠26.9, now ranked 137th. The offensive inefficiency is real: a 11% red-zone touchdown rate and 31%… 0–9 #137 Down 1 1.5
San José State: 2026 Week 12 recap San José State sits at 5–5 after grinding out a 30–19 home win over Northern Illinois in Week 10, a result that nudged the Spartans' rating up 0.6 points to −⁠10.7 and keeps them ranked 110th nationally per GIE. The offense has shown just… 5–5 #110 Up 4 0.6

Pac-12 5

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Boise State: 2026 Week 12 recap Boise State sits at 26th overall after Week 10, riding an 8–1 record and a decisive 64–38 road win over Colorado State that bumped their rating up 2.9 points to 13.8. That offensive explosion masks some underlying efficiency concerns:… 8–1 #26 Up 3 2.9
Colorado State: 2026 Week 12 recap Colorado State sits at 3–6 after absorbing a 64–38 home loss to Boise State in Week 10—a result that dropped their rating 2.6 points to −⁠11, cementing their position at 111th in the model. The Rams are converting just 33% of third downs… 3–6 #111 Down 8 2.6
Fresno State: 2026 Week 12 recap Fresno State sits at No. 51 overall after a significant rating jump this week, climbing 2.3 points to 4.9 despite a 17–10 loss to Utah State in Week 10. The Bulldogs remain 5–4 on the season with an expected win total near 6.1, suggesting… 5–4 #51 Up 10 2.3
Oregon State: 2026 Week 12 recap Oregon State's collapse is real. The Beavers dropped 2.8 rating points after a 42–21 home loss to Texas State in Week 10, falling to No. 56 overall with a 5–4 record. That's not a stumble; it's a structural problem. GIE now projects them… 5–4 #56 Down 6 2.8
San Diego State: 2026 Week 12 recap San Diego State sits at 4–5 with a rating of −⁠8.4, holding steady near the bottom of the FBS after a narrow 26–20 home win over Washington State in Week 9. The Aztecs have inched up marginally in GIE's assessment, but the underlying… 4–5 #102 Up 2 −8.4

SEC 11

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Alabama: 2026 Week 12 recap Alabama sits at No. 8 overall after a dominant 31–13 road win over LSU in Week 10, climbing 1.8 rating points to 22.7. The Crimson Tide are 7–2 and tracking toward nearly 9.6 expected wins—a projection that underscores their tournament… 7–2 #8 Down 1 22.7
Arkansas: 2026 Week 12 recap Arkansas sits at 3-6, and last week's three-point loss to Auburn didn't help matters—GIE dropped the Razorbacks 3.2 rating points to −⁠3.6, now ranked 88th. The offense remains a significant drag: a 19.7% red-zone touchdown rate and 43.4%… 3–6 #88 Down 17 −3.6
Auburn: 2026 Week 12 recap Auburn sits at 5–4 and ranked 60th by GIE after a narrow 26–23 win over Arkansas in Week 10, but the bigger story is the 3.7-point rating collapse since last week. The Tigers have slid to a 2.8 rating as structural cracks have widened: a… 5–4 #60 Down 9 2.8
Florida: 2026 Week 12 recap Florida's rating has cratered 4.7 points to 5.9 this season, dropping them to 47th overall, and last week's 23-7 home loss to Oklahoma explains why. The Gators are stuck at 5-4 with a red-zone TD rate of just 18%, which means they're… 5–4 #47 Down 16 4.7
Georgia: 2026 Week 12 recap Georgia sits atop the rankings at 31.3 rating following a dominant 42-7 road win over Ole Miss that vaulted them 4.2 points up the model. The 8-1 record and near-certain playoff slot (essentially locked per GIE) mask a mild efficiency… 8–1 #1 Up 1 31.3
Kentucky: 2026 Week 12 recap Kentucky's 7–2 record masks a sharp turn downward: a 2.3-point rating drop following a 34–6 loss to Tennessee in Week 10 left the Wildcats at 8.3 overall and ranked 41st by GIE. The blowout exposed offensive brittleness—a 22.6% red-zone… 7–2 #41 Down 10 8.3
LSU: 2026 Week 12 recap LSU sits at No. 7 overall with a 6–3 record, but last week's 31–13 home loss to Alabama knocked the Tigers down 2.3 rating points. The damage runs deeper than the scoreline: a red-zone TD rate of just 10.5% and third-down conversion rate… 6–3 #7 Down 4 2.3
Mississippi State: 2026 Week 12 recap Mississippi State's rating dropped 2.2 points this week to 3.8, landing them at 56th nationally—a sharp fall reflecting last week's 25-23 home loss to Vanderbilt. At 4-5, the Bulldogs are essentially out of playoff contention with zero… 4–5 #56 Down 4 2.2
Missouri: 2026 Week 12 recap Missouri sits at No. 28 after a 34–20 loss to Texas in Week 10 dropped its rating 0.5 points to 13.7. The Tigers are 6–3 on the season but face a narrow path forward—GIE projects 7.4 expected wins and assigns a zero percent chance at both… 6–3 #28 Down 10 0.5
Oklahoma: 2026 Week 12 recap Oklahoma sits at No. 45 after a significant rating drop this season. The Sooners are 5–4 following their Week 10 road win over Florida (23–7), but GIE has marked them down 2.5 points since last week, reflecting broader struggles that the… 5–4 #45 Down 12 7.8
Ole Miss: 2026 Week 12 recap Ole Miss sits at No. 30 in the latest GIE ratings after a brutal 42–7 loss to Georgia in Week 10 dropped its rating 1.2 points to 13.5. The Rebels are 6–3 but facing a stark reality: the model gives them zero probability of winning the… 6–3 #30 Down 14 1.2

Sun Belt 11

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
App State: 2026 Week 12 recap App State sits at 5–4 after dropping a 39–23 decision to Georgia State in Week 10, a loss that underscores the team's inconsistency on third down (32.7% conversion rate) and especially in the red zone, where they've scored touchdowns just… 5–4 #90 Up 5 −4.5
Arkansas State: 2026 Week 12 recap Arkansas State remains stuck at 4–5 after dropping a close one to UL Monroe 19–17 at home in Week 10, with GIE's rating unmoved at −⁠7 and the Red Wolves ranked 98th nationally. The loss stings because it was winnable: a red-zone touchdown… 4–5 #98 Down 1 −7.0
Coastal Carolina: 2026 Week 12 recap Coastal Carolina sits at 3–6 with a rating of −⁠8.2, up 2.1 points from last week following a modest correction off the back of recent film review. The Chants fell to Old Dominion 21–8 at home in Week 10, a result that underscores… 3–6 #100 Up 9 −8.2
Georgia Southern: 2026 Week 12 recap Georgia Southern sits at 5–4 after a dominant 49–13 home win over Marshall in Week 10, a result that vaulted their rating up 5.6 points to 0.8. The Eagles have clawed back into conversation territory, now ranked 72nd by GIE, though their… 5–4 #72 Up 22 5.6
Georgia State: 2026 Week 12 recap Georgia State sits at 5–4 after a statement road win over App State in Week 10, moving up to rank 96 with a rating of −⁠6.1. That 39–23 victory marked a 3.1-point jump in GIE's assessment, suggesting the Panthers showed something the model… 5–4 #96 Up 9 −6.1
Idaho: 2026 Week 12 recap Idaho sits at 5–5 after dismantling Eastern Washington 62–31 at home in Week 10, a statement of offensive dominance that offered brief respite in an otherwise murky season. The Vandals' rating hasn't budged enough to shift their playoff… 5–5 Not rated this week No prior week Not rated this week
James Madison: 2026 Week 12 recap James Madison's rating surged 2.9 points to 13.8 after a dominant 54-23 road win over Southern Miss in Week 10, vaulting them to No. 26 nationally. At 8-2, the Dukes are tracking toward 9.6 expected wins and own an 84.5% shot at the Sun… 8–2 #26 Up 3 2.9
Louisiana: 2026 Week 12 recap Louisiana climbed 1.3 rating points this week to 1.7, vaulting into the 66th rank after a two-point home win over South Alabama in Week 10. The Ragin' Cajuns are 6–3 and tracking toward eight expected wins on the season, though their path… 6–3 #66 Up 2 1.7
Louisiana Tech: 2026 Week 12 recap Louisiana Tech sits at No. 62 overall after a dominant 41–17 road win over Troy in Week 10, a result that vaulted the Bulldogs' rating up 4.8 points. At 7–2, they're outperforming their expected win total of 9.2, which signals that close… 7–2 #62 Up 22 4.8
Marshall: 2026 Week 12 recap Marshall sits at rank 117 with a 5–4 record after a brutal 49–13 loss to Georgia Southern in Week 10 that dropped their GIE rating 1.7 points to −⁠12.4. The damage reflects deeper offensive struggles: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 11%… 5–4 #117 Down 6 1.7
Old Dominion: 2026 Week 12 recap Old Dominion sits at 122nd nationally with a 3–7 record and a rating of −⁠14.3, a modest 0.4-point uptick after beating Coastal Carolina 21–8 in Week 10. The offensive story isn't pretty: a red-zone TD rate of just 14% means scoring… 3–7 #122 Up 2 −14.3

Week 11

100 recaps

ACC 12

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Boston College: 2026 Week 11 recap Boston College sits at 4–4 with a rating of −⁠1.5, holding rank 78 overall—stationary from last week despite a catastrophic 47–2 loss at Duke in Week 9. The Eagles face a red-zone crisis: a 12.5% touchdown rate in the scoring area… 4–4 #78 No change −1.5
California: 2026 Week 11 recap California sits at 3–6 with a rating of −⁠8.2, unchanged from last week after a 31–10 loss at NC State in Week 9. The Bears' offense remains a significant constraint: a red-zone TD rate of 14% and third-down conversion rate of 38% signal… 3–6 #101 No change −8.2
Clemson: 2026 Week 11 recap Clemson sits at 55th in GIE's ratings after a 36–24 road win over Florida State in Week 9, though the rating itself hasn't budged—the Tigers remain at 4.7 with no net shift. At 5–3, they're tracking toward 7.4 expected wins for the… 5–3 #55 No change 4.7
Duke: 2026 Week 11 recap Duke sits at 6–2 with a rating of 6.8, holding steady at No. 47 nationally after a dominant 47–2 win over Boston College in Week 9. The blowout didn't move the needle much—GIE saw it coming—but it underscores a team playing with real… 6–2 #47 No change 6.8
Florida State: 2026 Week 11 recap Florida State sits at 3–5 with a rating of 5.8, holding rank 53 after a flat week. The Seminoles' most recent outing—a 36–24 home loss to Clemson in Week 9—exposed familiar weaknesses: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 20% and third-down… 3–5 #53 No change 5.8
Georgia Tech: 2026 Week 11 recap Georgia Tech sits at 75th overall with a 2–6 record, and last week's 34–11 loss at Pittsburgh didn't budge the needle—GIE holds the rating flat at −⁠1.1. The Red Zone efficiency (16% TD rate) remains a chronic problem; when the Jackets get… 2–6 #75 No change −1.1
Louisville: 2026 Week 11 recap Louisville sits at 25th in GIE's ratings after a dominant 52–24 win over Stanford in Week 9, though the model hasn't budged the Cardinal's evaluation—a sign the victory was expected rather than transformative. At 5–3, they're tracking… 5–3 #25 No change 12.2
Miami: 2026 Week 11 recap Miami remains unbeaten at 8–0 and sits fifth in the GIE ratings at 24.7, though last week's road win over North Carolina (38–35) didn't move the needle—the rating held steady. The Hurricanes' late-game leverage performance of 4.55 powered… 8–0 #5 No change 24.7
NC State: 2026 Week 11 recap NC State sits at 4–4 after a dominant 31–10 win over California in Week 9, but the needle hasn't moved much according to GIE—the team's rating holds steady at −⁠0.9, good for 74th nationally. The Wolfpack's efficiency gains haven't been… 4–4 #74 No change −0.9
North Carolina: 2026 Week 11 recap North Carolina sits at 4–4 with a rating of 3.7, holding steady at 58th overall after last week produced no movement. The Tar Heels' most recent outing—a 38–35 home loss to Miami in Week 9—epitomizes their season: competitive but… 4–4 #58 No change 3.7
Pittsburgh: 2026 Week 11 recap Pittsburgh sits at 6–3 with a 7.9 rating and No. 44 standing, unchanged from last week despite dismantling Georgia Tech 34–11 two weeks back. The Panthers are tracking toward 7.7 expected wins, but the underlying picture is murkier: a… 6–3 #44 No change 7.9
SMU: 2026 Week 11 recap SMU sits at 21st overall with a 6–2 record, though last week's loss to Syracuse—27–30 on the road in Week 9—left the rating flat at 13.4. The Mustangs' red-zone efficiency tells much of the story: a 21% touchdown rate in the scoring area… 6–2 #21 No change 13.4

American Athletic 8

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Army: 2026 Week 11 recap Army sits at 5–3 after a 49–22 loss at Memphis in Week 9, a result that underscored ongoing offensive struggles. The Black Knights' rating hasn't budged week-to-week, holding steady at 66th overall. GIE projects 7.7 expected wins for the… 5–3 #66 No change 1.0
Charlotte: 2026 Week 11 recap Charlotte sits at 1–7 with a rating of −⁠25.4, unchanged from last week after falling to Tulane 38–31 at home in Week 9. The 49ers have won just once all season and face a steep climb: GIE projects 2.1 expected wins for the year, with zero… 1–7 #136 No change −25.4
East Carolina: 2026 Week 11 recap East Carolina sits at 4–4 after a 17–9 home win over Temple in Week 9, holding steady at rank 91 with a rating of −⁠4. The Pirates' offensive execution remains inconsistent: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 15% explains much of their… 4–4 #91 No change −4.0
Florida Atlantic: 2026 Week 11 recap Florida Atlantic sits at 5–3 with a rating of −⁠3.4, ranked 90th by GIE—and that rating hasn't budged since last week despite a 48–41 road loss to North Texas in Week 9. The Owls are aggressive on fourth down (60% of the time) and in… 5–3 #90 No change −3.4
Memphis: 2026 Week 11 recap Memphis sits at 7–2 after a dominant 49–22 win over Army in Week 9, holding a rating of 7 and ranking 46th per GIE. The Tigers haven't budged in the model's assessment—their rating stayed flat week-over-week—suggesting that dominance… 7–2 #46 No change 7.0
Navy: 2026 Week 11 recap Navy sits at 2–6 with a rating of −⁠1.6, unchanged from last week despite dropping a home game to Notre Dame 35–13 in Week 9. The Midshipmen's offensive efficiency remains a core problem: a red-zone TD rate of just 22% reveals how often… 2–6 #80 No change −1.6
North Texas: 2026 Week 11 recap North Texas sits at 6–2 with a rating of −⁠0.6, holding rank 72 overall. The Mean Green's most recent outing—a 48–41 home win over Florida Atlantic in Week 9—kept them firmly in contention, though GIE projects them for 8.6 expected wins,… 6–2 #72 No change −0.6
Rice: 2026 Week 11 recap Rice remains anchored at 122nd overall following a 51-49 road loss to Florida Atlantic in Week 8, a defeat that underscores their offensive struggles in the moments that matter most. A red-zone TD rate of 21% explains much of the… 1–7 #122 No change −14.2

Big 12 11

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Arizona: 2026 Week 11 recap Arizona sits at 14th in GIE's rankings heading into Week 11, holding a 6-2 record but essentially flat from last week's rating assessment. The Wildcats' most recent outing—a 34-26 road loss to Texas Tech in Week 9—exposed a critical… 6–2 #14 No change 16.0
Arizona State: 2026 Week 11 recap Arizona State sits at 4–4 after dropping a road test to BYU 27–20 in Week 9, a result that left the Sun Devils' rating unchanged at 2.3. The loss underscores a deeper offensive malaise: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 15% means scoring… 4–4 #62 No change 2.3
Baylor: 2026 Week 11 recap Baylor sits at 5–3 and holds a rating of 8.5, landing them at No. 43 nationally—unchanged from last week despite a dominant 41–9 road victory over UCF in Week 9. The blowout win showcased their ability to execute in transition, but it… 5–3 #43 No change 8.5
BYU: 2026 Week 11 recap BYU sits at 13th in GIE's rankings with a 7–1 record, though the model's rating held flat week-over-week—a signal that last week's 27–20 home win over Arizona State didn't move the needle much. The Cougars' red-zone efficiency, at just… 7–1 #13 No change 16.7
Cincinnati: 2026 Week 11 recap Cincinnati sits at 5–3 with a rating of 6.7, holding rank 49 nationally—but that stability masks a brutal reality. The Bearcats lost to Utah 49–25 in Week 9, a blowout that exposed fundamental offensive struggles: a red-zone TD rate of… 5–3 #49 No change 6.7
Colorado: 2026 Week 11 recap Colorado sits at 3–5 and ranked 93rd by GIE, holding a −⁠4.3 rating after edging Kansas State 27–24 in Week 9. The model hasn't shifted its assessment since that win—the offense remains constrained, particularly in the red zone where… 3–5 #93 No change −4.3
Houston: 2026 Week 11 recap Houston remains at 22nd in GIE's ratings after dropping a road game to Utah 21–13 in Week 8. The Cougars sit 6–2 on the season, but the loss exposed efficiency problems in high-leverage moments: a red-zone TD rate of just 14.5% and… 6–2 #22 No change 13.3
Iowa State: 2026 Week 11 recap Iowa State sits at 4–4 after a thrilling 51–49 home win over Oklahoma State in Week 9, but GIE's rating hasn't budged—still holding at −⁠1.2 and ranked 76th nationally. The model expects the Cyclones to win 5.8 games this season,… 4–4 #76 No change −1.2
Kansas: 2026 Week 11 recap Kansas sits at 3–5 with a rating of 2.8, unchanged after last week's 22–16 road loss to TCU in Week 9. The Jayhawks remain firmly outside playoff contention, and their situational metrics paint a picture of offensive struggle: a 22%… 3–5 #60 No change 2.8
Kansas State: 2026 Week 11 recap Kansas State sits at 4–4 after dropping a three-point road decision to Colorado in Week 9, a result that left the rating unchanged at 8.8 and ranked 39th overall. The Wildcats' offensive efficiency remains the core problem: a red-zone… 4–4 #39 No change 8.8
Oklahoma State: 2026 Week 11 recap Oklahoma State sits at No. 23 after a brutal 51-49 road loss to Iowa State in Week 9—a game that epitomized their season struggles. The Cowboys remain at a 12.4 rating despite the loss, reflecting how their rating had already adjusted… 5–3 #23 No change 12.4

Big Ten 14

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Illinois: 2026 Week 11 recap Illinois sits at 5–3 with a rating of 6.8, holding steady at No. 47 after a 20–17 road win over Maryland in Week 9. The Illini have found traction in close games but remain a team grinding through marginal efficiency: their red-zone… 5–3 #47 No change 6.8
Indiana: 2026 Week 11 recap Indiana sits at No. 6 overall with an 8–1 record and a GIE rating of 24.2, holding steady after last week's 23–16 home win over Minnesota. The Hoosiers have built real equity—a 91% playoff probability reflects their consistency—but… 8–1 #6 No change 24.2
Iowa: 2026 Week 11 recap Iowa sits at 23rd in GIE's latest rankings with a 6–2 record, holding steady after last week's dominant 30–0 shutout of Wisconsin. The rating hasn't budged, which tells you the Hawkeyes are performing roughly as the model expected—no… 6–2 #23 No change 12.4
Maryland: 2026 Week 11 recap Maryland remains anchored near the bottom of the Big Ten at 2–6 following a three-point home loss to Illinois in Week 9. The Terrapins' rating held steady at −⁠2.1, reflecting a team still searching for consistent execution. Red-zone… 2–6 #81 No change −2.1
Michigan: 2026 Week 11 recap Michigan sits at 27th nationally after a 5–3 start, with last week's road win over Rutgers (28–21) doing little to shift the needle in GIE's view—the rating held flat at 11.5. The real story is efficiency: a red-zone TD rate of 16%… 5–3 #27 No change 11.5
Michigan State: 2026 Week 11 recap Michigan State remains anchored at the bottom of the Big Ten after a 28–10 loss to UCLA in Week 8, with a 2–6 record and a rating that hasn't budged. The Spartans' offensive struggles are quantifiable: a third-down conversion rate of 37%… 2–6 #88 No change −3.0
Minnesota: 2026 Week 11 recap Minnesota sits at 5-3 with a rating of 3.9 and remains ranked 57th after absorbing a 23-16 road loss to Indiana in Week 9. The Gophers' offense has struggled to capitalize in crucial moments—their red-zone TD rate of 13% reflects missed… 5–3 #57 No change 3.9
Nebraska: 2026 Week 11 recap Nebraska sits at 15th nationally with a 5–3 record, but the rating held flat week-over-week despite a loss to Washington at home in Week 9. The 17–10 defeat exposed a persistent offensive vulnerability: a red-zone touchdown rate of just… 5–3 #15 No change 15.4
Northwestern: 2026 Week 11 recap Northwestern sits at No. 20 after a 26-34 road loss to Oregon in Week 9, a result that left the Wildcats' rating unchanged at 13.7. The 6-2 record masks deeper offensive struggles: a red-zone TD rate of just 8% explains why close games… 6–2 #20 No change 13.7
Ohio State: 2026 Week 11 recap Ohio State holds the top rating at 28.6, but the 6-2 record and recent loss to USC (30-18 in Week 9) have complicated the path forward. The Buckeyes haven't moved in GIE's assessment week-to-week, suggesting the model sees last week's… 6–2 #1 No change 28.6
Oregon: 2026 Week 11 recap Oregon sits at 5–3 after a 34–26 home win over Northwestern in Week 9, holding a GIE rating of 17 and ranked 12th. The Ducks haven't shifted in the model's assessment week-over-week, suggesting the victory merely confirmed what was… 5–3 #12 No change 17.0
Penn State: 2026 Week 11 recap Penn State sits at 4–4 after a decisive 31–17 home win over Purdue in Week 9, though that victory hasn't budged the needle—the model holds them at a 9.3 rating, ranked 36th. The red zone remains a chronic weak spot: a 15.3% touchdown rate… 4–4 #36 No change 9.3
Purdue: 2026 Week 11 recap Purdue remains at 69th overall after absorbing a 31–17 loss at Penn State in Week 9, with no rating movement despite the two-week span. The Boilermakers sit 3–5 and project to win around 4 games on the season, with zero realistic paths to… 3–5 #69 No change 0.2
Rutgers: 2026 Week 11 recap Rutgers remains firmly outside the playoff picture at 2–6, with GIE holding them steady at a rating of −⁠4.9 and rank 95 overall. Last week's 28–21 loss to Michigan at home exposed a persistent offensive problem: their red-zone touchdown… 2–6 #95 No change −4.9

Conference USA 9

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Delaware: 2026 Week 11 recap Delaware sits at 117th nationally after a 4–4 record through nine games, with its rating holding steady at −⁠11.7. The Fightin' Blue Hens' most recent outing—a 35–21 road win over Western Kentucky in Week 9—showed offensive teeth, but the… 4–4 #117 No change −11.7
Florida International: 2026 Week 11 recap Florida International sits at 3–5 after a 49–10 road loss to Liberty in Week 9, holding a GIE rating of −⁠7.9 and ranked 100th overall. The Panthers' offensive struggles are stark: a red-zone TD rate of just 16% and third-down conversion… 3–5 #100 No change −7.9
Jacksonville State: 2026 Week 11 recap Jacksonville State sits at 6–2 with a rating of −⁠2.6, holding rank 84 after a 24–0 win over New Mexico State in Week 9. The Gamecocks haven't budged in GIE's assessment despite the dominant road result—a sign that the model sees the… 6–2 #84 No change −2.6
Kennesaw State: 2026 Week 11 recap Kennesaw State sits at 2–6 and rated at −⁠13.8 by GIE, holding rank 120 overall with no path to the playoff or conference title. The Owls' signature moment came in Week 9, when they upset Middle Tennessee 44–28 on the road—a rare bright… 2–6 #120 No change −13.8
Liberty: 2026 Week 11 recap Liberty sits at 45th overall with a 7–1 record and a rating holding steady at 7.5. Their dominant 49–10 win over Florida International in Week 9 underscored offensive firepower, though the red-zone TD rate of 15% hints at untapped… 7–1 #45 No change 7.5
Middle Tennessee: 2026 Week 11 recap Middle Tennessee sits at 4–4 with a rating of −⁠15.2, holding steady at 125th nationally. The Blue Raiders took a 44–28 loss at home to Kennesaw State in Week 9, a result that underscores deeper offensive struggles: a red-zone touchdown… 4–4 #125 No change −15.2
Missouri State: 2026 Week 11 recap Missouri State sits at 128th overall with a 3–5 record, holding steady at a rating of −⁠16.9 after a dominant 24–3 home win over Sam Houston in Week 9. That victory showed what the Bears can do defensively, though the offense remains a… 3–5 #128 No change −16.9
New Mexico State: 2026 Week 11 recap New Mexico State sits at 3–5 with a rating of −⁠13.4, holding steady at 119th nationally. The Aggies got shutout at home by Jacksonville State 24–0 in Week 9, a result that underscores deeper offensive struggles: a red-zone TD rate of just… 3–5 #119 No change −13.4
Sam Houston: 2026 Week 11 recap Sam Houston remains anchored at 129th overall after a shutout loss to Missouri State that saw the Bearkats manage just 3 points. The rating held steady week-over-week, reflecting the consistency of their struggles: a red-zone TD rate of… 1–7 #129 No change −18.0

FBS Independents 1

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Notre Dame: 2026 Week 11 recap Notre Dame sits at No. 3 with a 7–1 record and a rating of 25.2—unchanged from last week despite the 35–13 road win over Navy in Week 9. The Irish offense moved the ball effectively but left efficiency issues unresolved: a 17% red-zone… 7–1 #3 No change 25.2

Mid-American 11

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Akron: 2026 Week 11 recap Akron remains anchored at 135th in the GIE rating with a 1–7 record through Week 10. The Zips haven't moved since last week—a 35–20 loss to Kent State in Week 8 underscored deeper offensive struggles. The numbers are unforgiving:… 1–7 #135 No change −25.1
Ball State: 2026 Week 11 recap Ball State sits at 3–5 after a dominant 34–17 home win over Sacramento State in Week 8, but the rating hasn't budged—a sign that GIE views the Cardinals as fundamentally limited despite the convincing result. The real problem shows up in… 3–5 #131 No change −20.1
Bowling Green: 2026 Week 11 recap Bowling Green sits at 2–7 after dropping a road game to Western Michigan 23–10 in Week 9, holding steady at a rating of −⁠18.2 and ranked 130th. The Falcons' offensive struggles remain the defining feature: a third-down conversion rate of… 2–7 #130 No change −18.2
Buffalo: 2026 Week 11 recap Buffalo sits at 5–3 with a rating of −⁠12, holding rank 118 nationally after a 31–24 home win over Bowling Green in Week 8. The rating hasn't budged since last week, reflecting a stalled trajectory despite the victory; the Bulls are… 5–3 #118 No change −12.0
Central Michigan: 2026 Week 11 recap Central Michigan sits at 3–5 with a rating of −⁠16.7, holding rank 127 nationally. The Chippewas' most recent contest—a one-point home loss to Miami (OH) in Week 8—underscores a season defined by narrow margins and execution shortfalls.… 3–5 #127 No change −16.7
Eastern Michigan: 2026 Week 11 recap Eastern Michigan sits at 4–5 and ranked 123rd by GIE, unchanged from last week after dropping a 24–20 road decision to Ohio in Week 8. The Eagles have work to do in the red zone—a 15% touchdown rate when opportunities are scarce—and… 4–5 #123 No change −14.6
Kent State: 2026 Week 11 recap Kent State sits at 3–6 with a rating of −⁠21.3, unmoved from last week after falling to Sacramento State 31–10 in week 9. The loss underscored a season-long struggle in the red zone—a touchdown rate of just 13% that mirrors the team's… 3–6 #132 No change −21.3
Massachusetts: 2026 Week 11 recap Massachusetts sits at 4–4 with a rating of −⁠11.1, unchanged from last week despite a 35–16 loss to UConn in Week 8. The Minutemen's offensive inefficiency is the story: a red-zone TD rate of just 13% and third-down conversion rate of 31%… 4–4 #113 No change −11.1
Miami (OH): 2026 Week 11 recap Miami (OH) sits at 5–3 with a rating of −⁠4.2, holding steady at rank 92 after a narrow road win over Central Michigan two weeks back. That 28–27 victory showcased the RedHawks' ability to execute in tight moments—late-game leverage… 5–3 #92 No change −4.2
Ohio: 2026 Week 11 recap Ohio sits at 6–2 with a rating of −⁠1.5, holding rank 78 overall—a position unchanged from last week despite the Week 8 home win over Eastern Michigan (24–20). The stagnant rating reflects a team treading water: solid on the surface but… 6–2 #78 No change −1.5
Sacramento State: 2026 Week 11 recap Sacramento State sits at 2–7 after a convincing 31–10 home win over Kent State in Week 9, but the victory hasn't budged their rating or standing: they remain at 138th nationally with a minus-29.1 mark. The Hornets' offensive efficiency… 2–7 #138 No change −29.1

Mountain West 7

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Air Force: 2026 Week 11 recap Air Force sits at 6–2 with a rating of −⁠0.8, ranked 73rd by GIE after holding steady through Week 9. The Falcons' 35–26 home win over UConn kept them in contention, though their red-zone efficiency remains a constraint—converting just 15%… 6–2 #73 No change −0.8
Hawai'i: 2026 Week 11 recap Hawai'i remains anchored at 107th in GIE's ratings after a dominant 56–21 road win over Northern Illinois in Week 8. That offensive explosion hasn't moved the needle because the Rainbow Warriors sit at 2–6 overall, with an expected win… 2–6 #107 No change −9.6
Nevada: 2026 Week 11 recap Nevada sits at No. 89 in GIE's ratings with a 3–5 record, and last week's 27–0 loss to UCLA underscored how far the Wolf Pack have slipped. The shutout wasn't an outlier—it crystallized deeper offensive issues: a redzone touchdown rate of… 3–5 #89 No change −3.1
New Mexico: 2026 Week 11 recap New Mexico sits at 7–1 and holding steady at No. 36 in GIE's ratings after a 21–16 road win over San José State in Week 9. The Lobos haven't budged in the model's assessment—a sign that the victory, while solid, landed squarely within… 7–1 #36 No change 9.3
North Dakota State: 2026 Week 11 recap North Dakota State sits at 41st overall with a 7–2 record and a 8.6 rating that's held steady through this stretch. The Bison dismantled UTEP 31–7 in Week 9, a dominant performance that kept them on track, though GIE projects them for 9.4… 7–2 #41 No change 8.6
Northern Illinois: 2026 Week 11 recap Northern Illinois sits at 136th nationally with a 0–8 record and no realistic path forward. The Huskies fell to UNLV 31–24 in Week 9, a loss that crystallizes their offensive struggles: a red-zone TD rate of just 11% and third-down… 0–8 #136 No change −25.4
San José State: 2026 Week 11 recap San José State sits at 4–5 with a rating of −⁠11.3, holding rank 114 nationally. The Spartans dropped a close home game to New Mexico 21–16 in Week 9, a loss that left their rating unchanged but their playoff hopes at zero. The offensive… 4–5 #114 No change −11.3

Pac-12 5

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Boise State: 2026 Week 11 recap Boise State sits at 7–1 and holds a 29th ranking despite flat momentum: the rating stayed at 10.9 this week following a narrow 46–45 home win over Texas State in Week 9. The razor-thin margin exposed a real vulnerability—red-zone… 7–1 #29 No change 10.9
Colorado State: 2026 Week 11 recap Colorado State sits at 3–5 with a rating of −⁠8.4 (ranked 103rd), holding steady week-over-week after a 31–14 loss at Utah State in Week 9. The Rams' offensive struggles are the through-line: a 21% red-zone touchdown rate and 33%… 3–5 #103 No change −8.4
Fresno State: 2026 Week 11 recap Fresno State sits at 5–3 with a rating of 2.6, holding rank 61 after a decisive 38–22 home win over Oregon State two weeks back. The rating hasn't budged since, and GIE sees the Bulldogs at roughly 7.0 expected wins for the season—a floor… 5–3 #61 No change 2.6
Oregon State: 2026 Week 11 recap Oregon State sits at No. 50 with a 5–3 record, holding steady at a 6.6 rating after last week's 38–22 loss at Fresno State. The Beavers haven't gained ground in GIE's assessment, a reflection of offensive inconsistency—their red-zone… 5–3 #50 No change 6.6
San Diego State: 2026 Week 11 recap San Diego State holds steady at 4–5 after a Week 9 home win over Washington State, 26–20, though GIE's rating hasn't budged—still −⁠8.6 and ranked 104th. The Aztecs have won their last two games, but offensive efficiency remains the… 4–5 #104 No change −8.6

SEC 11

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
Alabama: 2026 Week 11 recap Alabama sits at No. 7 with a 6–2 record and a GIE rating of 20.9, holding steady from last week. The Crimson Tide beat Texas A&M 31–20 in Week 8, but efficiency remains uneven: a red-zone TD rate of just 18.5% and a third-down conversion… 6–2 #7 No change 20.9
Arkansas: 2026 Week 11 recap Arkansas sits at 71st nationally with a 3–5 record and a rating of −⁠0.4—unchanged from last week despite a 34–10 home loss to Missouri in Week 9. The offense has struggled to finish drives; a red-zone TD rate of 20% highlights how often… 3–5 #71 No change −0.4
Auburn: 2026 Week 11 recap Auburn sits at 51st overall with a 4–4 record and a rating of 6.5, unchanged from last week despite a 45–15 loss at Ole Miss that laid bare the team's offensive struggles. The red-zone TD rate of 12% tells the real story—Auburn is leaving… 4–4 #51 No change 6.5
Florida: 2026 Week 11 recap Florida sits at 31st overall with a 5–3 record, but the rating hasn't budged since last week—a concerning stasis given the 27–8 loss to Georgia in Week 9. The damage in that game reflected a deeper offensive malfunction: a red-zone… 5–3 #31 No change 10.6
Georgia: 2026 Week 11 recap Georgia sits at No. 2 with a 7–1 record and a rating of 27.1, unchanged from last week after dispatching Florida 27–8 in Week 9. The Bulldogs' path to the playoff remains solid at an 86% probability, though their conference title odds sit… 7–1 #2 No change 27.1
Kentucky: 2026 Week 11 recap Kentucky sits at 31st overall with a 7-1 record and a rating of 10.6, holding steady after last week's 34-17 home win over Vanderbilt. That decisive result masks some underlying efficiency concerns: the Wildcats convert third downs at… 7–1 #31 No change 10.6
LSU: 2026 Week 11 recap LSU remains third overall at 25.2 rating through Week 11, holding steady after demolishing Auburn 38–17 on the road. The Tigers sit 6–2 and show little sign of slowing down, though that red-zone TD rate of 11% suggests efficiency isn't… 6–2 #3 No change 25.2
Mississippi State: 2026 Week 11 recap Mississippi State sits at 52nd overall with a 4–4 record and a rating that hasn't budged despite last week's 31–3 loss at Texas. That lopsided defeat underscores a deeper problem: a red-zone TD rate of just 13% and third-down conversions… 4–4 #52 No change 6.0
Missouri: 2026 Week 11 recap Missouri sits at 18th overall with a 6–2 record after routing Arkansas 34–10 in Week 9, but the rating held flat week-over-week at 14.2—a sign that GIE already priced in the level of dominance required for that blowout. The Tigers face a… 6–2 #18 No change 14.2
Oklahoma: 2026 Week 11 recap Oklahoma sits at 4–4 with a rating of 10.3, unchanged from last week despite a 42–25 loss at home to South Carolina in Week 9. That defeat exposed real offensive inefficiency: a red-zone TD rate of just 18% and third-down conversions at… 4–4 #33 No change 10.3
Ole Miss: 2026 Week 11 recap Ole Miss sits at 6–2 with a rating of 14.7, holding steady at No. 16 after a dominant 45–15 home win over Auburn in Week 9. The Rebels haven't budged in GIE's assessment, suggesting the victory confirmed what the model already believed… 6–2 #16 No change 14.7

Sun Belt 11

Team Excerpt Record Rank Rank change Rating
App State: 2026 Week 11 recap App State sits at 5–3 with a rating of −⁠4.9, ranking 95th nationally—unchanged from last week despite a lopsided 19–3 loss to Georgia Southern in Week 9. The offense has been a drag all season: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 18% and… 5–3 #95 No change −4.9
Arkansas State: 2026 Week 11 recap Arkansas State sits at 4–4 after a 38–32 win over Georgia State in Week 8, but GIE's rating hasn't budged—still holding at −⁠7 and ranked 97th overall. The Red Wolves' efficiency metrics reveal the tension: a 12% red-zone touchdown rate… 4–4 #97 No change −7.0
Coastal Carolina: 2026 Week 11 recap Coastal Carolina sits at 3–5 with a rating of −⁠10.3, holding rank 109 overall. The Chants picked up a road win at Georgia State last week, 31–20, but the victory hasn't moved the needle on GIE's assessment—the rating remained flat… 3–5 #109 No change −10.3
Georgia Southern: 2026 Week 11 recap Georgia Southern sits at 4–4 with a rating of −⁠4.8, holding steady from last week after a dominant 19–3 win over App State in Week 9. That defensive performance—holding a conference rival to a field goal—was the Eagles' signature… 4–4 #94 No change −4.8
Georgia State: 2026 Week 11 recap Georgia State sits at 4–4 after dropping a 31–20 home decision to Coastal Carolina in Week 9, holding steady at rank 105 with a rating of −⁠9.2. The Panthers haven't budged in GIE's assessment, suggesting the loss confirmed what the model… 4–4 #105 No change −9.2
Idaho: 2026 Week 11 recap Idaho sits at 4–5 after a dominant road win over Portland State (38–14) in Week 9, but GIE's projections offer little encouragement: the model pegs expected wins at 5.7 and assigns zero playoff probability. The Vandals' red-zone… 4–5 Not rated this week No prior week Not rated this week
James Madison: 2026 Week 11 recap James Madison sits at 7–2 with a rating of 10.9 and ranked 29th by GIE, but the Dukes remain stuck after a 24–21 home loss to Troy in Week 9. That defeat stalled any upward momentum; the model hasn't budged the rating this week. The… 7–2 #29 No change 10.9
Louisiana: 2026 Week 11 recap Louisiana sits at 68th overall with a 5–3 record, but GIE sees little daylight ahead: the model projects 7.9 expected wins for the season and assigns essentially no playoff probability. Last week's 35–31 road loss to Southern Miss… 5–3 #68 No change 0.4
Louisiana Tech: 2026 Week 11 recap Louisiana Tech sits at 6–2 with a rating of −⁠2.6, holding rank 84 overall after a dominant 35–20 road win over South Alabama in Week 9. The Bulldogs haven't shifted in the model's view since that victory, suggesting GIE saw the… 6–2 #84 No change −2.6
Marshall: 2026 Week 11 recap Marshall sits at 5–3 with a rating of −⁠10.7, holding rank 111 nationally. The Thundering Herd's most recent action came in Week 9, when they traveled to Old Dominion and secured a 36–23 win—a solid road result that kept their season… 5–3 #111 No change −10.7
Old Dominion: 2026 Week 11 recap Old Dominion remains anchored at 124th in GIE ratings after a 36–23 home loss to Marshall in Week 9, with no movement in the model's assessment despite entering Week 10 facing Coastal Carolina on the road. The Monarchs sit 2–7, well below… 2–7 #124 No change −14.7