Miami: 2026 Week 12 recap

Miami sits at No. 3 with an 8–1 record, though a narrow loss to Notre Dame last week has them treading water. GIE shows a slight dip in their rating—down 0.7 points—which reflects the vulnerability exposed in that 31–24 defeat. The real concern isn't the ranking; it's execution when it matters most. Their red-zone TD rate of 17% is well below championship standards, and that inefficiency cost them against a top team. Miami still commands a 79% shot at the ACC title and a 95% playoff probability, but those margins shrink if they can't finish drives. Duke at home this week offers a reset, though GIE expects them to win about 10.4 games total—implying the margin for error is tightening as the season heads downhill.