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Miami

Hurricanes · ACC

Head coach Mario Cristobal Year 4 with Miami

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
9.4
Expected wins
9-3
Proj record
7 to 12
Win range (90%)
#11 (5–22)
Final rank (90%)
62%
Make playoff
41%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

62%

Baseline projection.

  • at Wake Forest
    Away · Sep 18
  • at Clemson
    Away · Oct 3
  • at Notre Dame
    Away · Nov 8

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

56 PCI
  • Quarterback 44% (4/9 players)
  • Offensive line 63% (12/19 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 58% (18/31 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 69% (24/35 players)
  • Secondary 58% (11/19 players)
  • Special teams 56% (5/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 40.0% 69th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.2% 73th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 40.3% 67th — average
  • Late & close 4.5 yds/play 33th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Miami: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Miami sits at No. 9 nationally with a 13–3 record and a GIE rating of 20.7. The Hurricanes dismantled Pittsburgh 38–7 on the road in Week 14, a dominant performance that underscored their offensive firepower and defensive discipline. That…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.