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2026 Week 9 · Conference game

Miami at North Carolina

Friday, October 30, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Kenan Stadium

Miami
ACC
Record
0-0
Rating
20.7
National rank
9
Proj. wins
9.4
Playoff prob.
61%
North Carolina
ACC
Record
0-0
Rating
-6.6
National rank
91
Proj. wins
3.2
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Miami
97%
North Carolina
3%
North Carolina 90% CI: 2% – 5% Δ rating 27.3

Miami is the model's favorite at 97%. North Carolina has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.1 rating points baked in for North Carolina — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Miami offense
32 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

North Carolina offense
33 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, October 30, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Kenan Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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