Articles
Methodology, explainers, and one-off analyses from 4thand4cast.
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Sun Belt 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Sun Belt enters 2026 in a state of flux. **James Madison** and **Old Dominion** have separated themselves as the conference's most capable programs, but the model sees a steep climb for either to…
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
SEC 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The SEC enters 2026 with a familiar shape: a tight cluster of elite contenders at the top, a canyon of separation below them, and a lower half still searching for traction. **Georgia** and **Ole Miss…
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Pac-12 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Pac-12 enters 2026 as a conference in motion—not quite a power league, not quite a mid-major, but a collection of programs with genuine upside and real ceiling questions. San Diego State sits ato…
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Mountain West 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Mountain West enters 2026 in a state of competitive flux. UNLV and Hawai'i have emerged as clear favorites to win the conference, each carrying roughly 28% championship probability according to G…
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Mid-American 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Mid-American Conference enters 2026 with a clear hierarchy and a decisive favorite. Toledo sits atop the league with a 47% chance to win the conference title, a projection built on nearly nine ex…
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Conference USA 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
Conference USA enters 2026 in a state of relative clarity. The model sees two teams with material separation from the rest of the field, a middle tier of programs with genuine upside, and a bottom ha…
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Big Ten 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Big Ten enters 2026 with a three-team pecking order at the summit, a sizable middle class of teams with legitimate tournament aspirations, and a lower half that faces steep climbs. Indiana remain…
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Big 12 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Big 12 enters 2026 with a clear hierarchy and a championship race that looks like a two-horse affair. **Texas Tech** sits atop the conference with a 98% playoff probability and a 71% chance to wi…
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
American Athletic 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The American Athletic enters 2026 with a familiar hierarchy: **North Texas** and **South Florida** occupy the top tier, each carrying legitimate conference-championship aspirations, while **East Caro…
- Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
ACC 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The ACC enters 2026 with a clear hierarchy, but not a coronation. **Miami** sits atop the conference with a 61% playoff probability and a legitimate claim to the title race, yet the model sees a mode…
- Methodology · May 11, 2026
We ranked all 134 FBS teams in May. Here's what that's worth.
The 2026 Way Too Early Top 25 is live. Here's what makes up the number, what's deliberately missing, and what changes in August when rosters publish.
- Methodology · May 9, 2026
Garbage-time-stripped ratings
How GIE handles garbage-time stats, and which teams' published ratings would shift most if we stripped them.