Articles
Methodology, explainers, and one-off analyses from 4thand4cast.
- Methodology · May 11, 2026
We ranked all 134 FBS teams in May. Here's what that's worth.
The 2026 Way Too Early Top 25 is live. Here's what makes up the number, what's deliberately missing, and what changes in August when rosters publish.
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Big Ten 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Big Ten enters 2026 with a clear hierarchy but no coronation. Indiana arrives as the conference's presumptive favorite, though the model rates them slightly down from their national perch a year…
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Sun Belt 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Sun Belt enters 2026 in a state of clear hierarchy. Two teams—**James Madison** and **Old Dominion**—have separated themselves as legitimate conference contenders, while the rest of the field fra…
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
SEC 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The SEC enters 2026 with a familiar shape: a tight cluster of contenders at the top, a steep drop-off to the middle class, and a bottom tier that's still searching for footing. **Georgia** and **Ole…
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Pac-12 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Pac-12 enters 2026 as a lean, eight-team conference with a clear pecking order and one dominant storyline: **San Diego State** is the class of the league, but the gap between the Aztecs and every…
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Mountain West 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Mountain West enters 2026 as a two-team race with genuine intrigue lurking in the middle. UNLV and Hawai'i have separated themselves as the conference's clearest contenders, each with a legitimat…
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Mid-American 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Mid-American Conference enters 2026 with a clear pecking order, but it's a narrower one than the national perception might suggest. Toledo sits atop the league with a 46% probability of winning t…
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Conference USA 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
Conference USA enters 2026 in a state of modest flux. The league has two clear contenders at the top, a cluster of teams with genuine upside in the middle, and a bottom tier still searching for stabi…
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Big 12 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Big 12 enters 2026 as a top-heavy conference with a clear pecking order and little room for surprise. Texas Tech has established itself as the class of the league, while Utah lurks as a capable s…
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
American Athletic 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The American Athletic enters 2026 with a familiar shape: a narrow band of contenders at the top and a steep drop-off into the middle and lower tiers. **North Texas** and **South Florida** occupy the…
- Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
ACC 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The ACC enters 2026 with **Miami** as the clear favorite but a conference-wide softness that the model finds hard to ignore. The Hurricanes sit atop the league with a 60.9% playoff probability and a…
- Methodology · May 9, 2026
Garbage-time-stripped ratings
How GIE handles garbage-time stats, and which teams' published ratings would shift most if we stripped them.