2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Florida State at Miami
Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Hard Rock Stadium
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 7.2
- National rank
- 41
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Miami
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 20.7
- National rank
- 9
- Proj. wins
- 9.4
- Playoff prob.
- 61%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida State
14%
Miami
86%
Miami 90% CI: 80% – 90% Δ rating 13.5
Miami is the model's favorite at 86%. Florida State has a 14% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.8 rating points baked in for Miami — venue-specific learned value (n=57 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida State offense
30 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Miami offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No