2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Florida State at Miami
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Hard Rock Stadium
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- 5.5
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 4.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Miami
ACC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 23.2
- National rank
- 7
- Proj. wins
- 9.3
- Playoff prob.
- 77%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida State
9%
Miami
91%
Miami 90% CI: 87% – 94% Δ rating 17.7
Miami is the model's favorite at 91%. Florida State has a 9% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.8 rating points baked in for Miami — venue-specific learned value (n=57 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida State offense
30 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Miami offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No