Blue Devils · ACC
Head coach Manny Diaz Year 3 with Duke
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Miami | 29% | 0% | +29pp |
| at Wake Forest | 24% | 0% | +24pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Tulane American Athletic | Win, 17-3 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Illinois Big Ten | Win, 31-27 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Stanford ACC | Win, 35-7 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs William & Mary Non-FBS | Win, 62-7 Final |
| Wk 5 | Bye | |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | at Georgia Tech ACC | Loss, 25-28 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | vs North Carolina ACC | Loss, 20-24 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 23 | at Virginia ACC | Win, 19-16 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Boston College ACC | Win, 47-2 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at NC State ACC | Win, 41-3 Final |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at Miami ACC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Clemson ACC | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Wake Forest ACC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
36 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+0.2 rating
20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Javen NicholasWR From Charlotte | Charlotte | 142 |
| Walker EgetQB From San José State | San José State | 131 |
| Jared RichardsonWR From Pennsylvania | Pennsylvania | 94 |
| Patrick Smith-YoungS From North Texas | North Texas | 87 |
| Nate KuriskyTE From Louisville | Louisville | 62 |
| Dylan FlowersCB From Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | 62 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
