2026 Week 8 · Conference game
Duke at Virginia
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Scott Stadium
Duke
ACC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 7.0
- National rank
- 46
- Proj. wins
- 8.4
- Playoff prob.
- 11%
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 10.5
- National rank
- 36
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Duke
32%
Virginia
68%
Virginia 90% CI: 59% – 75% Δ rating 3.5
Virginia is the model's favorite at 68%. Duke has a 32% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Virginia — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Duke offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Virginia offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Scott Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No