2026 Week 8 · Conference game
Duke at Virginia
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Scott Stadium
Duke
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 6.6
- National rank
- 44
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 11.1
- National rank
- 31
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Duke
30%
Virginia
70%
Virginia 90% CI: 62% – 78% Δ rating 4.5
Virginia is the model's favorite at 70%. Duke has a 30% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Virginia — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Duke offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Virginia offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Scott Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No