Cavaliers · ACC
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
9%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
GIE ranks Virginia 12 spots below the Committee, viewing the Cavaliers with considerably more skepticism despite their recent signature wins. The model's caution reflects Virginia's inconsistency: while they dominated Duke 34–17 on the…
GIE sees Virginia ten spots lower than the Coaches Poll, a divergence rooted in how the model weights recent performance against broader season context. While Virginia has shown flashes—notably a 34-17 road win over Duke and a dominant…
GIE ranks Virginia 11 spots lower than the AP Poll, viewing the Cavaliers with considerably more skepticism than the consensus. While Virginia's recent wins over Duke (34–17) and Virginia Tech (27–7) have impressed voters, GIE's…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
