2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Virginia at SMU
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 10.5
- National rank
- 36
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
SMU
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 12.0
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Virginia
31%
SMU
69%
SMU 90% CI: 61% – 77% Δ rating 1.5
SMU is the model's favorite at 69%. Virginia has a 31% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.9 rating points baked in for SMU — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Virginia offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
SMU offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Gerald J. Ford Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No