SMU sits at 26th in the ratings after a steady 4–1 start, but last week's 25–16 win over Boston College didn't move the needle—GIE holds the Mustangs flat at a rating of 13. The red-zone efficiency tells part of the story: converting just 21% of trips into touchdowns leaves real points on the field, and a third-down conversion rate of 37% suggests SMU is working harder than it needs to stay in games. The model projects 8.2 expected wins for the season, a modest cushion above their current record. Virginia visits Saturday, and the Mustangs will need sharper execution in tight moments to build on their early success.