2026 Week 12 · Conference game
North Carolina at Virginia
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Scott Stadium
North Carolina
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 4.5
- National rank
- 59
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 10.5
- National rank
- 36
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Carolina
26%
Virginia
74%
Virginia 90% CI: 66% – 81% Δ rating 6.0
Virginia is the model's favorite at 74%. North Carolina has a 26% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Virginia — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Carolina offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Virginia offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Scott Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No