2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Virginia at Florida State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Doak Campbell Stadium
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 10.5
- National rank
- 36
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- 5.5
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 4.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Virginia
57%
Florida State
43%
Florida State 90% CI: 34% – 52% Δ rating 5.0
Virginia is the model's favorite at 57%. Florida State has a 43% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.6 rating points baked in for Florida State — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Virginia offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Florida State offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
83°F
Precipitation
41%
Wind
6 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Doak Campbell Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No