2026 Week 11 · Conference game
California at Virginia
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Scott Stadium
California
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 0.8
- National rank
- 67
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 10.5
- National rank
- 36
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
California
18%
Virginia
82%
Virginia 90% CI: 76% – 87% Δ rating 9.7
Virginia is the model's favorite at 82%. California has a 18% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Virginia — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
California offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Virginia offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Scott Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No