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California

Golden Bears · ACC

Head coach Justin Wilcox Year 9 with California

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
5.4
Expected wins
5-7
Proj record
2 to 9
Win range (90%)
#85 (60–109)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs UCLA
    Home · Sep 6
  • at Syracuse
    Away · Sep 12
  • at UNLV
    Away · Oct 3

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

45 PCI
  • Quarterback 33% (2/6 players)
  • Offensive line 56% (10/18 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 47% (15/32 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 63% (20/32 players)
  • Secondary 45% (9/20 players)
  • Special teams 13% (1/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.7% 57th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.3% 45th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 37.3% 56th — average
  • Late & close 4.9 yds/play 45th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    California: 2025 Week 16 recap

    California sits at 80th overall with a 7–6 record after a 38–35 home win over SMU in Week 14. The victory showed resilience in a tight contest, though the narrow margin underscores the team's inconsistency this season. At a GIE rating of…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.