2026 Week 5
California at UNLV
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Allegiant Stadium
California
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -3.2
- National rank
- 80
- Proj. wins
- 5.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
UNLV
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 4.3
- National rank
- 57
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
California
24%
UNLV
76%
UNLV 90% CI: 68% – 82% Δ rating 7.5
UNLV is the model's favorite at 76%. California has a 24% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for UNLV — venue-specific learned value (n=29 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
California offense
44 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UNLV offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Allegiant Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No