2026 Week 5
California at UNLV
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Allegiant Stadium
California
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 0.8
- National rank
- 67
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
UNLV
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -3.3
- National rank
- 84
- Proj. wins
- 5.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
California
58%
UNLV
42%
UNLV 90% CI: 33% – 52% Δ rating 4.1
California is the model's favorite at 58%. UNLV has a 42% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for UNLV — venue-specific learned value (n=29 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
California offense
44 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UNLV offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
91°F
Precipitation
2%
Wind
9 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Allegiant Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No