2026 Week 8 · Conference game
California at SMU
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
California
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -3.2
- National rank
- 80
- Proj. wins
- 5.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
SMU
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 13.4
- National rank
- 23
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 12%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
California
6%
SMU
94%
SMU 90% CI: 91% – 96% Δ rating 16.6
SMU is the model's favorite at 94%. California has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.9 rating points baked in for SMU — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
California offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
SMU offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Gerald J. Ford Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No