2026 Week 1 · Conference game · Neutral site
NC State at Virginia
Friday, August 28, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Nilton Santos Stadium
NC State
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 4.8
- National rank
- 55
- Proj. wins
- 7.0
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 11.1
- National rank
- 31
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
NC State
31%
Virginia
69%
Virginia 90% CI: 60% – 76% Δ rating 6.3
Virginia is the model's favorite at 69%. NC State has a 31% path. No home-field adjustment applied (neutral site).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
NC State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Virginia offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast for neutral-site venues will arrive once the venues table ships (#53).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, August 28, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Nilton Santos Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- Yes