4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

2026 Week 2

Duke at Illinois

Friday, September 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Duke
ACC
Record
0-0
Rating
6.6
National rank
44
Proj. wins
6.3
Playoff prob.
1%
Illinois
Big Ten
Record
0-0
Rating
12.9
National rank
24
Proj. wins
7.8
Playoff prob.
4%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Duke
32%
Illinois
68%
Illinois 90% CI: 59% – 75% Δ rating 6.3

Illinois is the model's favorite at 68%. Duke has a 32% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.4 rating points baked in for Illinois — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Duke offense
34 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Illinois offense
40 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, September 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Conference game
No
Neutral site
No

← Home