Arkansas State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Arkansas State remains stuck at 4–5 after dropping a close one to UL Monroe 19–17 at home in Week 10, with GIE's rating unmoved at −7 and the Red Wolves ranked 98th nationally. The loss stings because it was winnable: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 12% suggests they're leaving points on the board when field position matters most. Third-down conversions at 38% tell a similar story of offensive inconsistency. With an expected win total around 5.4, Arkansas State needs to string together victories down the stretch, but playoff probability reads zero—the math is essentially closed. Up next is a road trip to Coastal Carolina in Week 11, a game where the Red Wolves' late-game leverage performance (3.87) could make the difference if they find themselves in a tight finish.