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Coastal Carolina

Chanticleers · Sun Belt

Head coach Tim Beck Year 3 with Coastal Carolina

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
4.3
Expected wins
4-7
Proj record
1 to 8
Win range (90%)
#120 (100–134)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • at West Virginia
    Away · Sep 5
  • vs Fordham
    Home · Sep 12
  • at Delaware
    Away · Sep 19
  • vs Liberty
    Home · Sep 24

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

40 PCI
  • Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
  • Offensive line 52% (11/21 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 37% (11/30 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 38% (12/32 players)
  • Secondary 33% (8/24 players)
  • Special teams 25% (2/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Tad Hudson)

GIE projects a 10.4 rating drop and a 41.8pp shift in playoff probability if Coastal Carolina loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 32.3% 26th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 13.4% 35th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 25.2% 10th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 3.9 yds/play 22th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Coastal Carolina: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Coastal Carolina sits at 6–7 after a brutal 59–10 home loss to James Madison in Week 14, a result that underscores just how far the Chanticleers have fallen this season. GIE rates them at –15.1, ranking them 121st nationally—a position…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.