Arkansas State: 2026 Week 11 recap

Arkansas State sits at 4–4 after a 38–32 win over Georgia State in Week 8, but GIE's rating hasn't budged—still holding at −7 and ranked 97th overall. The Red Wolves' efficiency metrics reveal the tension: a 12% red-zone touchdown rate shows real trouble converting in the end zone, while a 38% third-down conversion rate keeps drives stalling. Late-game execution (3.87 leverage performance) has been a relative bright spot, but the model projects only 6.3 expected wins for the season, signaling that Arkansas State is likely performing slightly ahead of sustainable talent. Next up is UL Monroe at home, a chance to pad the record before the stretch run determines whether the current momentum holds.