Panthers · Sun Belt
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
21 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -3.7 rating drop and a -14.9pp shift in playoff probability if Georgia State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=5 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Georgia State sits at 1–0 after a dominant 59–10 Week 1 win over North Carolina A&T, though GIE's rating remains flat at –29.3, placing them 137th nationally. The lopsided scoreline masks some underlying concerns: a red-zone touchdown…
Georgia State jumped 79 rating points in one week. That's the kind of move that happens when you demolish a FCS opponent 59-10, not when you're building something sustainable. The Panthers' expected win total is still 4.06. One blowout…
Georgia State's rating jumped 79 ELO points after a 59-10 win over North Carolina A&T in Week 1—a single-week swing substantial enough to shift the Panthers' season expectations meaningfully.
Georgia State climbed 79 ELO points after one week. The Panther offense scored 59 on FCS competition. That's efficient. But 4.3 expected wins says the model still sees a ceiling: one explosive week doesn't retrain a season-long…
Georgia State's rating jumped 79 points in a single week, moving from 1194 to 1273—a swing large enough to suggest either a significant performance or a recalibration based on fresh data.
Georgia State sits at 1–11 after dropping a 27–10 road decision to Old Dominion in Week 14, with a current GIE rating of –24.5 (133rd nationally). The Panthers have struggled to generate offensive momentum all season, and that weakness…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
