2026 Week 4
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
Center Parc Stadium
Northern Illinois
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -19.7
- National rank
- 129
- Proj. wins
- 3.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Georgia State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -19.6
- National rank
- 128
- Proj. wins
- 7.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Northern Illinois
46%
Georgia State
54%
Georgia State 90% CI: 45% – 63% Δ rating 0.1
Georgia State is the model's favorite at 54%. Northern Illinois has a 46% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.3 rating points baked in for Georgia State — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Northern Illinois offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Georgia State offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
81°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
9 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Center Parc Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No