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2026 Week 4

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Center Parc Stadium

Northern Illinois
Mountain West
Record
0-0
Rating
-16.7
National rank
128
Proj. wins
3.6
Playoff prob.
0%
Georgia State
Sun Belt
Record
0-0
Rating
-24.5
National rank
133
Proj. wins
0.8
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Northern Illinois
69%
Georgia State
31%
Georgia State 90% CI: 23% – 39% Δ rating 7.8

Northern Illinois is the model's favorite at 69%. Georgia State has a 31% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.3 rating points baked in for Georgia State — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Northern Illinois offense
39 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Georgia State offense
37 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Center Parc Stadium
Conference game
No
Neutral site
No

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