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Arkansas State

Red Wolves · Sun Belt

Head coach Butch Jones Year 5 with Arkansas State

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
5.7
Expected wins
6-6
Proj record
3 to 9
Win range (90%)
#101 (80–122)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
1%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs West Georgia
    Home · Sep 12
  • vs Kennesaw State
    Home · Sep 26
  • at Louisiana
    Away · Oct 3
  • vs South Alabama
    Home · Oct 8
  • at Southern Miss
    Away · Oct 17

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

42 PCI
  • Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
  • Offensive line 50% (10/20 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 38% (13/34 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 40% (14/35 players)
  • Secondary 35% (7/20 players)
  • Special teams 56% (5/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 38.4% 61th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 11.9% 25th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 33.6% 36th — below avg
  • Late & close 3.9 yds/play 21th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Arkansas State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Arkansas State sits at 7–6 after a 30–29 road win over App State in Week 14—a tight result that underscores the Red Wolves' competitive standing in the Sun Belt middle class. GIE rates them at –8.8, ranking them 100th nationally, a…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.