2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Arkansas State at Southern Miss
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -8.8
- National rank
- 100
- Proj. wins
- 0.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Southern Miss
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -7.1
- National rank
- 94
- Proj. wins
- 1.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Arkansas State
45%
Southern Miss
55%
Southern Miss 90% CI: 46% – 64% Δ rating 1.7
Southern Miss is the model's favorite at 55%. Arkansas State has a 45% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.1 rating points baked in for Southern Miss — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arkansas State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Southern Miss offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- M. M. Roberts Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No