2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Arkansas State at Louisiana
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Cajun Field
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 2-2
- Rating
- -9.5
- National rank
- 107
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Louisiana
Sun Belt
- Record
- 3-1
- Rating
- -7.2
- National rank
- 99
- Proj. wins
- 8.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Arkansas State
38%
Louisiana
62%
Louisiana 90% CI: 53% – 70% Δ rating 2.3
Louisiana is the model's favorite at 62%. Arkansas State has a 38% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for Louisiana — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arkansas State offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Louisiana offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
69°F
Precipitation
24%
Wind
8 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Cajun Field
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No