2026 Week 1 FINAL
Arkansas State at Memphis
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
24
Arkansas State
Final
42
Memphis
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 3 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| Memphis | 0 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
GIE pre-game call: Memphis at 86%. Hit.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -9.5
- National rank
- 107
- Proj. wins
- 5.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Memphis
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-1
- Rating
- 3.7
- National rank
- 62
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Arkansas State
14%
Memphis
86%
Memphis 90% CI: 81% – 90% Δ rating 13.2
Memphis is the model's favorite at 86%. Arkansas State has a 14% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Memphis — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No