Arkansas State at Memphis
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arkansas State | 3 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
 Memphis Winner | 0 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
GIE pre-game call: Memphis at 89%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Arkansas State 11% Underdog
Memphis 89% Favorite
Memphis is the model's favorite at 89%. Arkansas State has a 11% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.1 rating points baked in for Memphis — venue-specific night-game value (n=57 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Memphis recap Memphis: 2026 Week 12 recap Memphis sits at 7–2 with a 9.6 rating and ranks 37th after a dominant 49–22 home win over Army in Week 9. That result capped a significant three-week climb—GIE has lifted the Tigers 2.6 rating points since early November, reflecting…
- Arkansas State recap Arkansas State: 2026 Week 12 recap Arkansas State remains stuck at 4–5 after dropping a close one to UL Monroe 19–17 at home in Week 10, with GIE's rating unmoved at –7 and the Red Wolves ranked 98th nationally. The loss stings because it was winnable: a red-zone touchdown…