2026 Week 3 FINAL
Arkansas State at TCU
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Amon G. Carter Stadium
7
Arkansas State
Final
31
TCU
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| TCU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
GIE pre-game call: TCU at 95%. Hit.
Recaps
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -9.5
- National rank
- 107
- Proj. wins
- 5.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
TCU
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 11.2
- National rank
- 32
- Proj. wins
- 6.5
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Arkansas State
5%
TCU
95%
TCU 90% CI: 93% – 96% Δ rating 20.7
TCU is the model's favorite at 95%. Arkansas State has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for TCU — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Amon G. Carter Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No