2026 Week 3
Arkansas State at TCU
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -8.8
- National rank
- 100
- Proj. wins
- 0.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
TCU
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 8.3
- National rank
- 37
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Arkansas State
8%
TCU
92%
TCU 90% CI: 89% – 95% Δ rating 17.1
TCU is the model's favorite at 92%. Arkansas State has a 8% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for TCU — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arkansas State offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
TCU offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Amon G. Carter Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No