2026 Week 6 · Conference game
South Alabama at Arkansas State
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Centennial Bank Stadium
South Alabama
Sun Belt
- Record
- 2-2
- Rating
- -12.1
- National rank
- 111
- Proj. wins
- 6.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 2-2
- Rating
- -9.5
- National rank
- 107
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Alabama
31%
Arkansas State
69%
Arkansas State 90% CI: 61% – 77% Δ rating 2.6
Arkansas State is the model's favorite at 69%. South Alabama has a 31% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.0 rating points baked in for Arkansas State — venue-specific night-game value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Alabama offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Arkansas State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
54°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
16 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Centennial Bank Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No