2026 Week 13 · Conference game
Troy at Arkansas State
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
Centennial Bank Stadium
Troy
Sun Belt
- Record
- 2-2
- Rating
- -6.2
- National rank
- 93
- Proj. wins
- 6.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 2-2
- Rating
- -9.5
- National rank
- 107
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Troy
53%
Arkansas State
47%
Arkansas State 90% CI: 38% – 56% Δ rating 3.3
Troy is the model's favorite at 53%. Arkansas State has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.3 rating points baked in for Arkansas State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Troy offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Arkansas State offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Centennial Bank Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No