UL Monroe

Warhawks · Sun Belt

Head coach Bryant Vincent Year 2 with UL Monroe

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs SP+ expected · n=47

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

3.1

Expected wins

3-8

Proj record

0 to 6

Win range (90%)

#132 (121–137)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at UAB

Away · Sep 12
vs Florida Atlantic

Home · Sep 26
at South Alabama

Away · Oct 3
vs Southern Miss

Home · Oct 31

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

51 PCI

Quarterback 43% (3/7 players)
Offensive line 65% (13/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 33% (13/40 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 57% (16/28 players)
Secondary 50% (11/22 players)
Special teams 100% (5/5 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Aidan Armenta)

GIE projects a -2.1 rating drop and a -8.2pp shift in playoff probability if UL Monroe loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 26.0% 10th — bottom tier
Red-zone TD rate 17.5% 74th — strong
4th-down aggression 41.0% 70th — strong
Late & close 5.9 yds/play 73th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about UL Monroe will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.