UL Monroe
Warhawks · Sun Belt
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
-
at UABAway · Sep 12 -
vs Florida AtlanticHome · Sep 26 -
at South AlabamaAway · Oct 3 -
vs Southern MissHome · Oct 31
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 91% (3/5 )
- Offensive line 76% (13/17 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 19% (8/25 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 42% (9/27 )
- Secondary 25% (8/20 )
- Special teams 96% (3/6 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
13 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Cade Callahan TE ← Merrimack 56 impact
- Bryce Anderson TE ← Memphis 40 impact
- Armoni Rue DB ← UTSA 6 impact
- Austin Carlisle QB ← Houston 2 impact
- Taijh Overton S ← Arkansas 1 impact
- Demarcco Blanton WR ← Arkansas State
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -2.1 rating drop and a -8.2pp shift in playoff probability if UL Monroe loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 26.0% 10th — bottom tier
- Red-zone TD rate 17.5% 74th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 41.0% 70th — strong
- Late & close 5.9 yds/play 73th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5
atMississippi StateSEC3%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12
atUABAmerican Athletic26%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19vsSE Louisiana—
- Wk 4Sep 26
vsFlorida AtlanticAmerican Athletic21%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atSouth AlabamaSun Belt19%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsLouisiana TechSun Belt10%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atTroySun Belt8%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsSouthern MissSun Belt18%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atArkansas StateSun Belt13%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 13
vsLouisianaSun Belt25%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atApp StateSun Belt17%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsMarshallSun Belt14%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.