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UL Monroe

Warhawks · Sun Belt

Head coach Bryant Vincent Year 3 with UL Monroe

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
3.1
Expected wins
3-8
Proj record
0 to 6
Win range (90%)
#132 (121–137)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • at UAB
    Away · Sep 12
  • vs Florida Atlantic
    Home · Sep 26
  • at South Alabama
    Away · Oct 3
  • vs Southern Miss
    Home · Oct 31

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

60 score
  • Quarterback 91% (3/5 )
  • Offensive line 76% (13/17 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 19% (8/25 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 42% (9/27 )
  • Secondary 25% (8/20 )
  • Special teams 96% (3/6 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

-1.0 rating

13 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Cade Callahan TE ← Merrimack 56 impact
  • Bryce Anderson TE ← Memphis 40 impact
  • Armoni Rue DB ← UTSA 6 impact
  • Austin Carlisle QB ← Houston 2 impact
  • Taijh Overton S ← Arkansas 1 impact
  • Demarcco Blanton WR ← Arkansas State

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

If QB1 is out (Aidan Armenta)

GIE projects a -2.1 rating drop and a -8.2pp shift in playoff probability if UL Monroe loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 26.0% 10th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.5% 74th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 41.0% 70th — strong
  • Late & close 5.9 yds/play 73th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.