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2026 Week 5 · Conference game

UL Monroe at South Alabama

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC

Hancock Whitney Stadium

UL Monroe
Sun Belt
Record
0-4
Rating
-28.0
National rank
138
Proj. wins
2.0
Playoff prob.
0%
South Alabama
Sun Belt
Record
2-2
Rating
-12.1
National rank
111
Proj. wins
6.0
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

UL Monroe
10%
South Alabama
90%
South Alabama 90% CI: 86% – 93% Δ rating 15.9

South Alabama is the model's favorite at 90%. UL Monroe has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.4 rating points baked in for South Alabama — venue-specific night-game value (n=33 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

UL Monroe offense
36 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

South Alabama offense
31 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Weather at kickoff

Conditions
Light drizzle
Temperature
70°F
Precipitation
37%
Wind
7 mph

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Venue
Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
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