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2026 Week 5 · Conference game

UL Monroe at South Alabama

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC

Hancock Whitney Stadium

UL Monroe
Sun Belt
Record
0-0
Rating
-21.6
National rank
131
Proj. wins
1.0
Playoff prob.
0%
South Alabama
Sun Belt
Record
0-0
Rating
-12.7
National rank
114
Proj. wins
1.1
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

UL Monroe
26%
South Alabama
74%
South Alabama 90% CI: 67% – 81% Δ rating 8.9

South Alabama is the model's favorite at 74%. UL Monroe has a 26% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.3 rating points baked in for South Alabama — venue-specific learned value (n=33 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

UL Monroe offense
36 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

South Alabama offense
31 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Venue
Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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