2026 Week 5 · Conference game
UL Monroe at South Alabama
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Hancock Whitney Stadium
UL Monroe
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-4
- Rating
- -28.0
- National rank
- 138
- Proj. wins
- 2.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
South Alabama
Sun Belt
- Record
- 2-2
- Rating
- -12.1
- National rank
- 111
- Proj. wins
- 6.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UL Monroe
10%
South Alabama
90%
South Alabama 90% CI: 86% – 93% Δ rating 15.9
South Alabama is the model's favorite at 90%. UL Monroe has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.4 rating points baked in for South Alabama — venue-specific night-game value (n=33 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UL Monroe offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
South Alabama offense
31 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Light drizzle
Temperature
70°F
Precipitation
37%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Hancock Whitney Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No