2026 Week 1
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Davis Wade Stadium
UL Monroe
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -21.6
- National rank
- 131
- Proj. wins
- 1.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Mississippi State
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 4.1
- National rank
- 58
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UL Monroe
3%
Mississippi State
97%
Mississippi State 90% CI: 96% – 98% Δ rating 25.7
Mississippi State is the model's favorite at 97%. UL Monroe has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.8 rating points baked in for Mississippi State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UL Monroe offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Mississippi State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No