SMU: 2026 Week 12 recap

SMU sits at 18th overall with a 7–2 record and a rating of 15.8, up 2.4 points from last week following a dominant 51–28 home win over Virginia Tech in Week 10. The Mustangs have momentum, but the underlying picture reveals constraint: a red-zone TD rate of 21% suggests they're leaving points on the field in scoring position, and a third-down conversion rate of 37% points to offensive inconsistency. GIE projects 8.5 expected wins this season, and SMU's playoff odds remain thin at under 1%. Next up is a home matchup against Wake Forest this Saturday—a chance to maintain rhythm before the stretch run, though the model sees limited room for a postseason run from here.