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Virginia Tech

Hokies · ACC

Head coach James Franklin Year 2 with Virginia Tech

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
3.3
Expected wins
3-7
Proj record
1 to 6
Win range (90%)
#110 (88–127)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Old Dominion
    Home · Sep 12
  • at Boston College
    Away · Sep 26
  • at California
    Away · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

42 score
  • Quarterback 0% (2/5 )
  • Offensive line 73% (11/15 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 57% (18/31 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 54% (20/34 )
  • Secondary 71% (13/20 )
  • Special teams 11% (4/7 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.0 rating

27 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Jaquez White CB ← Troy 199 impact
  • Cam Chadwick Jr. CB ← UConn 173 impact
  • Que'Sean Brown WR ← Duke 151 impact
  • Bill Davis RB ← Louisiana 118 impact
  • Luke Reynolds TE ← Penn State 111 impact
  • Marlion Jackson WR ← Louisiana Tech 71 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 38.0% 59th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 18.4% 81th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 40.7% 69th — average
  • Late & close 6.9 yds/play 89th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.