Virginia Tech
Hokies · ACC
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
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vs Old DominionHome · Sep 12 -
at Boston CollegeAway · Sep 26 -
at CaliforniaAway · Oct 10
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 0% (2/5 )
- Offensive line 73% (11/15 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 57% (18/31 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 54% (20/34 )
- Secondary 71% (13/20 )
- Special teams 11% (4/7 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
27 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Jaquez White CB ← Troy 199 impact
- Cam Chadwick Jr. CB ← UConn 173 impact
- Que'Sean Brown WR ← Duke 151 impact
- Bill Davis RB ← Louisiana 118 impact
- Luke Reynolds TE ← Penn State 111 impact
- Marlion Jackson WR ← Louisiana Tech 71 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 38.0% 59th — average
- Red-zone TD rate 18.4% 81th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 40.7% 69th — average
- Late & close 6.9 yds/play 89th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsVMI—
- Wk 2Sep 12
vsOld DominionSun Belt16%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
atMarylandBig Ten16%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atBoston CollegeACC37%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 2
vsPittsburghACC12%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
atCaliforniaACC24%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsGeorgia TechACC11%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atClemsonACC6%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atSMUACC4%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsStanfordACC63%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atMiamiACC2%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsVirginiaACC9%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.