Virginia Tech

Hokies · ACC

Head coach James Franklin Year 2 with Virginia Tech

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs SP+ expected · n=47

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

3.2

Expected wins

3-8

Proj record

1 to 6

Win range (90%)

#110 (88–127)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Old Dominion

Home · Sep 12
at Boston College

Away · Sep 26
at California

Away · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

44 PCI

Quarterback 33% (2/6 players)
Offensive line 42% (8/19 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 58% (15/26 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 53% (20/38 players)
Secondary 38% (6/16 players)
Special teams 57% (4/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 38.0% 59th — average
Red-zone TD rate 18.4% 81th — strong
4th-down aggression 40.7% 69th — average
Late & close 6.9 yds/play 89th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Virginia Tech will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.