Wake Forest

Demon Deacons · ACC

Head coach Jake Dickert Year 1 with Wake Forest

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

6.2

Expected wins

6-6

Proj record

3 to 10

Win range (90%)

#54 (28–81)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at SMU

Away · Nov 14
at Georgia Tech

Away · Nov 21
vs Miami

Home · Sep 18
at Louisville

Away · Sep 26
at NC State

Away · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

34 PCI

Quarterback 0% (0/6 players)
Offensive line 43% (9/21 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 48% (16/33 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 50% (15/30 players)
Secondary 52% (13/25 players)
Special teams 57% (4/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Robby Ashford)

GIE projects a 4.3 rating drop and a 17.1pp shift in playoff probability if Wake Forest loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 36.5% 47th — average
Red-zone TD rate 10.8% 19th — bottom tier
4th-down aggression 41.5% 72th — strong
Late & close 3.7 yds/play 20th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Wake Forest will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.