Wake Forest
Demon Deacons · ACC
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
1%
Baseline projection.
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at SMUAway · Nov 14 -
vs MiamiHome · Sep 18 -
at LouisvilleAway · Sep 26 -
at Georgia TechAway · Nov 21 -
at NC StateAway · Oct 10
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 0% (2/5 )
- Offensive line 60% (12/20 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 31% (12/34 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 58% (14/29 )
- Secondary 51% (16/25 )
- Special teams 12% (4/8 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
23 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Wondame Davis Jr. WR ← UTEP 110 impact
- Gio Lopez QB ← North Carolina 78 impact
- Sawyer Seidl RB ← North Dakota 75 impact
- Deuce Blades II DB ← Florida International 70 impact
- Bernard Causey DB ← Georgia State 70 impact
- Tylan McNichols LB ← UAB 39 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 4.3 rating drop and a 17.1pp shift in playoff probability if Wake Forest loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 36.5% 47th — average
- Red-zone TD rate 10.8% 19th — bottom tier
- 4th-down aggression 41.5% 72th — strong
- Late & close 3.7 yds/play 20th — bottom tier
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 3
vsAkronMid-American94%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12
atPurdueBig Ten76%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 18
vsMiamiACC17%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atLouisvilleACC24%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
vsStanfordACC92%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
atNC StateACC45%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
atCaliforniaACC69%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsVirginiaACC41%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7vsMerrimack—
- Wk 11Nov 14
atSMUACC22%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atGeorgia TechACC32%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsDukeACC55%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.