Ohio State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Ohio State enters Week 12 ranked 3rd but facing real trouble after a 41–28 home loss to Oregon last week. The rating drop of 4.6 points reflects the severity: GIE now projects a 0% playoff probability and 0% chance to win the Big Ten. The underlying issue shows in the red zone, where the Buckeyes converted just 13.8% of scoring opportunities—a damning efficiency gap that explains the 13-point margin. With a 6–3 record and expected wins sitting at 7.9, Ohio State must beat Northwestern this week to salvage their postseason positioning, but the model sees the damage as structural rather than circumstantial.