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Ohio State

Buckeyes · Big Ten

Head coach Ryan Day Year 7 with Ohio State

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
9.1
Expected wins
9-3
Proj record
6 to 11
Win range (90%)
#3 (1–9)
Final rank (90%)
99%
Make playoff
17%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

99%

Baseline projection.

  • at Texas
    Away · Sep 12
  • at USC
    Away · Oct 31
  • vs Oregon
    Home · Nov 7
  • at Iowa
    Away · Oct 3
  • at Indiana
    Away · Oct 17

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

53 PCI
  • Quarterback 43% (3/7 players)
  • Offensive line 56% (10/18 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 55% (17/31 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 57% (20/35 players)
  • Secondary 76% (16/21 players)
  • Special teams 45% (5/11 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 47.9% 97th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 13.8% 39th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 42.9% 78th — strong
  • Late & close 4.7 yds/play 37th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Ohio State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Ohio State sits at No. 2 in GIE's ratings (30.1) with a 12-2 record, but last week's 13-10 home loss to Indiana stung. The upset marked a significant stumble for a team that had been operating at the top tier of the model's rankings. That…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.