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Ohio State

Buckeyes · Big Ten

GIE rank
#35
of 138 FBS
Rating
1652
2026 Week 12
Record
6-3
2026 season
Proj record
8-4
12-game season

Head coach Ryan Day Year 8 with Ohio State

Season projection

2026 W12 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.9
1.9 more wins in 3 left
Win range (90%)
7 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#37 (25–51)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Ohio State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Ball State Mid-American Win, 56-3 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Texas SEC Loss, 23-24 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Kent State Mid-American Win, 59-3 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Illinois Big Ten Win, 42-19 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at Iowa Big Ten Win, 31-14 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Maryland Big Ten Win, 45-16 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Indiana Big Ten Win, 19-15 Final
Wk 8 Bye
Wk 9 Oct 31 at USC Big Ten Loss, 18-30 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Oregon Big Ten Loss, 28-41 Final
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Northwestern Big Ten Win probability: 85%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Nebraska Big Ten Win probability: 71%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Michigan Big Ten Win probability: 89%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Ohio State: 2026 Week 12 recap

    Ohio State enters Week 12 ranked 3rd but facing real trouble after a 41–28 home loss to Oregon last week. The rating drop of 4.6 points reflects the severity: GIE now projects a 0% playoff probability and 0% chance to win the Big Ten. The…

  • Recap

    Ohio State: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Ohio State holds the top rating at 28.6, but the 6-2 record and recent loss to USC (30-18 in Week 9) have complicated the path forward. The Buckeyes haven't moved in GIE's assessment week-to-week, suggesting the model sees last week's…

  • Recap

    Ohio State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Ohio State holds steady at No. 2 with a 4–1 record and a rating of 28.8, unchanged from last week despite the dominant 31–14 road win over Iowa in Week 5. The Buckeyes are converting third downs at 48%, which keeps drives alive, but a…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

65 score

  • Quarterback 95% (3/7)
  • Offensive line 68% (13/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 55% (15/31)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 32% (16/32)
  • Secondary 40% (12/25)
  • Special teams 65% (1/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.6 rating

23 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Ohio State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Earl Little Jr.S From Florida State Florida State 143
Devin McCuinWR From UTSA UTSA 134
Hunter WelcingTE From Northwestern Northwestern 116
Mason WilliamsTE From Ohio Ohio 112
Christian AlliegroLB From Wisconsin Wisconsin 110
James SmithDT From Alabama Alabama 99

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 47.9%
    97th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 13.8%
    39th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 42.9%
    78th — strong
  • Late & close 4.7 yds/play
    37th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.