2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Ohio State at Iowa
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Kinnick Stadium
Ohio State
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 29.7
- National rank
- 1
- Proj. wins
- 6.6
- Playoff prob.
- 14%
Iowa
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 17.3
- National rank
- 18
- Proj. wins
- 8.1
- Playoff prob.
- 23%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ohio State
77%
Iowa
23%
Iowa 90% CI: 17% – 30% Δ rating 12.4
Ohio State is the model's favorite at 77%. Iowa has a 23% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for Iowa — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ohio State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Iowa offense
22 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Drizzle
Temperature
67°F
Precipitation
19%
Wind
9 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Kinnick Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No