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2026 Week 1

Ball State at Ohio State

Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Ohio Stadium

Ball State
Mid-American
Record
0-0
Rating
-23.0
National rank
132
Proj. wins
2.9
Playoff prob.
0%
Ohio State
Big Ten
Record
0-0
Rating
30.1
National rank
2
Proj. wins
9.1
Playoff prob.
99%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Ball State
0%
Ohio State
100%
Ohio State 90% CI: 100% – 100% Δ rating 53.1

Ohio State is the model's favorite at 100%. Ball State has a 0% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.8 rating points baked in for Ohio State — venue-specific learned value (n=66 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Ball State offense
23 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Ohio State offense
40 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Ohio Stadium
Conference game
No
Neutral site
No

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