Ball State

Cardinals · Mid-American

Head coach Mike Uremovich Year 1 with Ball State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

2.8

Expected wins

3-7

Proj record

0 to 6

Win range (90%)

#133 (125–138)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at Kent State

Away · Sep 26
at Massachusetts

Away · Nov 4
vs Buffalo

Home · Nov 11
vs Central Michigan

Home · Nov 28

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

47 PCI

Quarterback 50% (3/6 players)
Offensive line 47% (9/19 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 42% (14/33 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 47% (15/32 players)
Secondary 48% (10/21 players)
Special teams 43% (3/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 30.3% 16th — bottom tier
Red-zone TD rate 12.8% 30th — below avg
4th-down aggression 32.7% 31th — below avg
Late & close 5.5 yds/play 62th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Recap May 9, 2026

Ball State: 2025 Week 16 recap

Ball State sits at 4–8 after a 45–24 road loss to Miami (OH) in Week 14, holding a rating of –23 and ranking 132nd per GIE. The Cardinals have spent the season struggling to generate consistent offensive production and defensive stops,…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.