2026 Week 3 FINAL
Ball State at Liberty
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
Williams Stadium (VA)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| Liberty | 13 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 51 |
GIE pre-game call: Liberty at 94%. Hit.
Recaps
- Liberty recap
Liberty: 2026 Week 3 recap
Liberty sits at 88th overall with a 0–1 record after dropping their opener to James Madison, 20–13. The rating hasn't budged since—GIE sees them as a 6-win team in a league-wide sense. The red-zone TD rate of 15% tells the real story;…
- Ball State recap
Ball State: 2026 Week 3 recap
Ball State sits at 0–1 after a 56–3 road loss to Ohio State in Week 1—a result that left the Cardinals' rating essentially flat at –25.1, ranking 133rd nationally. The margin tells you everything: this was a mismatch between…
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -24.3
- National rank
- 136
- Proj. wins
- 4.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
- Record
- 3-1
- Rating
- -3.0
- National rank
- 82
- Proj. wins
- 8.3
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Liberty is the model's favorite at 94%. Ball State has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Liberty — venue-specific learned value (n=40 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Williams Stadium (VA)
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No