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Liberty

Flames · Conference USA

Head coach Jamey Chadwell Year 3 with Liberty

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
6.3
Expected wins
6-6
Proj record
3 to 9
Win range (90%)
#100 (79–122)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
10%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Gardner-Webb
    Home · Sep 12
  • at Kennesaw State
    Away · Oct 22
  • vs Florida International
    Home · Oct 31

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

52 PCI
  • Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
  • Offensive line 58% (11/19 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 58% (19/33 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 52% (15/29 players)
  • Secondary 58% (14/24 players)
  • Special teams 63% (5/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Ethan Vasko)

GIE projects a -2.6 rating drop and a -10.5pp shift in playoff probability if Liberty loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 38.7% 63th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.1% 54th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 42.9% 78th — strong
  • Late & close 5.8 yds/play 70th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.