2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Sam Houston at Liberty
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Williams Stadium (VA)
Sam Houston
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -16.3
- National rank
- 121
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Liberty
Conference USA
- Record
- 3-1
- Rating
- -3.0
- National rank
- 82
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Sam Houston
16%
Liberty
84%
Liberty 90% CI: 78% – 88% Δ rating 13.3
Liberty is the model's favorite at 84%. Sam Houston has a 16% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.0 rating points baked in for Liberty — venue-specific night-game value (n=40 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sam Houston offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Liberty offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
56°F
Precipitation
8%
Wind
8 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Williams Stadium (VA)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No