2026 Week 11 · Conference game
Buffalo at Ball State
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Scheumann Stadium
Buffalo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -7.5
- National rank
- 95
- Proj. wins
- 5.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -23.0
- National rank
- 132
- Proj. wins
- 2.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Buffalo
83%
Ball State
17%
Ball State 90% CI: 12% – 23% Δ rating 15.5
Buffalo is the model's favorite at 83%. Ball State has a 17% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.8 rating points baked in for Ball State — venue-specific learned value (n=44 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Buffalo offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Ball State offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
- Venue
- Scheumann Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No