Bulls · Mid-American
Head coach Pete Lembo Year 2 with Buffalo
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes Buffalo's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 3 | vs UAlbany Non-FBS | Win, 21-17 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Florida International Conference USA | Loss, 20-33 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | at Penn State Big Ten | Loss, 13-55 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Robert Morris Non-FBS | Win, 31-28 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | vs Western Michigan Mid-American | Loss, 17-20 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | at Toledo Mid-American | Win, 23-8 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | vs Massachusetts Mid-American | Win, 25-18 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs Bowling Green Mid-American | Win, 31-24 Final |
| Wk 9 | Bye | |
| Wk 10 Nov 4 | at Miami (OH) Mid-American | Win, 34-31 Final |
| Wk 11 Nov 12 | at Ball State Mid-American | |
| Wk 12 Nov 19 | vs Central Michigan Mid-American | |
| Wk 13 Nov 27 | at Akron Mid-American | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -0.2 rating drop and a -0.9pp shift in playoff probability if Buffalo loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
25 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−1.4 rating
12 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor WilsonTE From Campbell | Campbell | 38 |
| Zae JenningsS From West Virginia | West Virginia | 10 |
| Drayson CraneCB From Morehead State | Morehead State | 8 |
| Caleb OliverEDGE From Wofford | Wofford | 8 |
| Sayre SmothersCB From The Citadel | The Citadel | 4 |
| Joey CheshireLB From Cornell | Cornell | 2 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
