2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Western Michigan at Buffalo
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 5:00 PM UTC
UB Stadium
Western Michigan
Mid-American
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -2.6
- National rank
- 80
- Proj. wins
- 7.9
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
Buffalo
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -16.1
- National rank
- 120
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Western Michigan
76%
Buffalo
24%
Buffalo 90% CI: 18% – 31% Δ rating 13.5
Western Michigan is the model's favorite at 76%. Buffalo has a 24% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.2 rating points baked in for Buffalo — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Western Michigan offense
32 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Buffalo offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
71°F
Precipitation
28%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 5:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- UB Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No