2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Western Michigan at Buffalo
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
UB Stadium
Western Michigan
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.4
- National rank
- 78
- Proj. wins
- 6.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Buffalo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -7.5
- National rank
- 95
- Proj. wins
- 5.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Western Michigan
56%
Buffalo
44%
Buffalo 90% CI: 35% – 54% Δ rating 6.1
Western Michigan is the model's favorite at 56%. Buffalo has a 44% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.2 rating points baked in for Buffalo — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Western Michigan offense
32 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Buffalo offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- UB Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No