Western Michigan

Broncos · Mid-American

Head coach Lance Taylor Year 3 with Western Michigan

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

6.9

Expected wins

7-5

Proj record

4 to 10

Win range (90%)

#76 (51–100)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

10%

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Monmouth

Home · Sep 12
at Rice

Away · Sep 19
vs Boise State

Home · Sep 26
at Central Michigan

Away · Oct 17

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

49 PCI

Quarterback 60% (3/5 players)
Offensive line 50% (10/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 39% (11/28 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 50% (15/30 players)
Secondary 36% (8/22 players)
Special teams 43% (3/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 38.1% 59th — average
Red-zone TD rate 14.0% 41th — below avg
4th-down aggression 44.1% 83th — strong
Late & close 5.0 yds/play 46th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Western Michigan will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.