2026 Week 8 · Conference game
Bowling Green at Buffalo
Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
UB Stadium
Bowling Green
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -22.0
- National rank
- 134
- Proj. wins
- 3.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Buffalo
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -16.1
- National rank
- 120
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Bowling Green
22%
Buffalo
78%
Buffalo 90% CI: 71% – 84% Δ rating 5.9
Buffalo is the model's favorite at 78%. Bowling Green has a 22% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.2 rating points baked in for Buffalo — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Bowling Green offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Buffalo offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- UB Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No